“双支柱”政策框架、跨境资本流动与房地产价格调控  

The“two-pillar”policy framework,cross-border capital flows and real estate price regulation

作　　者：王千红[1] 石晓艺 WANG Qian-hong;SHI Xiao-yi(Glorious Sun School of Business and Management,Donghua University,Shanghai 200051)

机构地区：[1]东华大学旭日工商管理学院,上海200051

出　　处：《价格月刊》2025年第3期25-36,共12页

基　　金：国家社科基金项目“银行面向中小企业的信贷信息共享机制、契约设计及制度建设研究”(编号:14BJL034);国家自然科学基金项目“宏观经济波动下的动态复杂银行网络系统稳定性及宏观审慎监管研究”(编号:71971054)。

摘　　要：在中国城镇居民家庭资产中,住房资产占比近70%。随着金融双向开放程度的提升及跨境资本进入房地产市场政策的放宽,探究房地产价格调控政策效果是否受跨境资本流动影响愈发重要。为此,采用2011—2021年中国31个省份的平衡面板数据作为样本,实证分析“双支柱”政策框架对房地产价格调控的有效性及跨境资本流动对政策调控的调节作用。实证结果显示,第一,宏观审慎政策能增强货币政策对房地产价格的负向调节,弥补货币政策在调控房地产价格方面的不足,且该政策效果呈现区域异质性。第二,跨境资本流动对“双支柱”政策框架调控效果产生影响,并具有非对称性特征。In Chinese urban household assets,housing assets account for nearly 70%.With the increase of two-way financial openness and the relaxation of policies on cross-border capital entering the real estate market,it is increasingly important to explore whether the effectiveness of real estate price regulation policies is affected by cross-border capital flows.Therefore,this paper uses the balanced panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2011to 2021 as samples to empirically analyze the effectiveness of the“two-pillar”policy framework on the regulation of real estate prices and the regulatory role of cross-border capital flows on the policy regulation.The empirical results show that,first,macro-prudential policy can enhance the negative regulation of monetary policy on real estate prices and make up for the shortcomings of monetary policy in regulating real estate prices,and the effect of this policy presents regional heterogeneity.Second,cross-border capital flows have an impact on the regulatory effectiveness of the“two-pillar”policy framework and exhibit asymmetric characteristics.

关 键 词：“双支柱”政策框架 跨境资本流动 房地产价格 

分 类 号：F726[经济管理—产业经济]