基于创新趋势分析方法的珠江流域降水径流变化趋势研究  

Research on the variation trends of precipitation and runoff in the Pearl River Basin based on innovative trend analysis method

作　　者：王霞雨 贾文豪 王森 冯仲恺 秦友伟 张康 刘夏 李家誉 WANG Xiayu;JIA Wenhao;WANG Sen;FENG Zhongkai;QIN Youwei;ZHANG Kang;LIU Xia;LI Jiayu(National Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,Jiangsu,China;College of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,Jiangsu,China;Key Laboratory of the Pearl River Estuary Regulation and Protection of Ministry of Water Resources,Guangzhou 510611,Guangdong,China;Pearl River Water Resources Research Institute,Pearl River Water Resources Commission of the Ministry of Water Resources,Guangzhou 510611,Guangdong,China;Key Laboratory of Water Security Guarantee in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Marco Greater Bay Area,Ministry of Water Resources,Guangzhou 510611,Guangdong,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学水灾害防御全国重点实验室,江苏南京210098 [2]河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏南京210098 [3]水利部珠江河口治理与保护重点实验室,广东广州510611 [4]水利部珠江水利委员会珠江水利科学研究院,广东广州510611 [5]水利部粤港澳大湾区水安全保障重点实验室,广东广州510611

出　　处：《水利水电技术(中英文)》2025年第4期52-69,共18页Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFC3001000);国家自然科学基金项目(52379009);水灾害防御全国重点实验室自主研究项目(5240152E2);广东省水利科技创新项目(2023-01);水利部重大科技项目(SKS-2022005)。

摘　　要：【目的】降水和径流是水文循环的关键要素,研究降水、径流趋势变化,特别是进一步挖掘降水与径流间关系的改变,对理解气候变化、水资源管理和生态保护具有重要意义。【方法】基于1956—2019年长系列降水与径流资料,采用创新趋势分析方法对珠江流域不同时空尺度的降水、径流以及径流系数的变化趋势进行分析。【结果】结果表明:(1)珠江流域年降水量整体呈下降趋势,低值类的变化呈现超过5%的下降趋势,说明珠江流域干旱发生的可能性增加,年径流量的变化趋势同降水一致;从不同子流域来看,西江、东江呈显著下降趋势,而北江则呈上升趋势。(2)从不同季节来看,珠江流域春、秋季降水呈显著下降趋势,而夏、冬季降水呈上升趋势,春季高值类及秋季所有类型降水呈现超过5%的下降趋势,夏季高值类及冬季低中值类降水呈现超过5%的上升趋势;春、秋、冬三季年径流量变化趋势同降水一致,而夏季则相反。(3)径流系数呈显著下降趋势,高值类下降最为明显,经初步分析径流系数的降低与流域蒸散发增加、植被覆盖率变化以及水工程调蓄有关。(4)创新趋势分析法和传统Mann-Kendall方法在趋势类型上的一致率为70%,显著性的一致率为22%。【结论】珠江流域降水、径流以及径流系数时空变化特征:从时间上看,珠江流域年降水量和年径流量整体呈下降趋势,径流系数显著下降;从空间上看,西江、东江降水径流呈显著下降趋势,而北江则呈上升趋势;创新趋势分析法相较于Mann-Kendall法在趋势显著性检验方面差异明显。[Objective]Precipitation and runoff are the key elements of the hydrological cycle.Studying the trend variations of precipitation and runoff,especially further exploring changes in their relationship,is of great significance for understanding climate change,water resources management,and ecological protection.[Methods]Based on a long series of precipitation and runoff data from 1956 to 2019,the innovative trend analysis method was used to analyze the variation trends of precipitation,runoff,and runoff coefficient at different spatiotemporal scales in the Pearl River Basin.[Results]The result showed that:(1)the overall annual precipitation in the Pearl River Basin showed a downward trend,with changes in low-value categories declining by more than 5%,indicating an increased likelihood of drought in the Pearl River Basin,and the change trend of annual runoff was consistent with that of precipitation.Across different sub-basins,the West River and East River showed significant downward trends,while the North River showed an upward trend.(2)From a seasonal perspective,spring and autumn precipitation in the Pearl River Basin showed a significant downward trend,while summer and winter precipitation showed an upward trend.The spring high precipitation values and all types of autumn precipitation showed a downward trend of more than 5%,and the summer high precipitation values and winter low-to-median precipitation showed an upward trend of more than 5%.The variation trends of annual runoff in spring,autumn,and winter were consistent with precipitation,but were opposite in summer.(3)The runoff coefficient showed a significant downward trend,especially in high values.Preliminary analysis suggested that the decrease in runoff coefficient was related to the increase of evapotranspiration,changes in vegetation coverage,and the regulation and storage of water engineering.(4)The consistency rate between the innovative trend analysis method and the traditional Mann-Kendall method was 70%for trend type and 22%for significance.[Conc

关 键 词：创新趋势分析 气候变化 降水径流 径流系数 时空变化特征 珠江流域 

分 类 号：TV212.3[水利工程—水文学及水资源] P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]