2024年新疆羊产业发展分析及2025年预测  

Analysis on the Development of Xinjiang Sheep Industry in 2024 and forecast in 2025

作　　者：森巴提·叶尔兰 杨会国[2] 刘娜娜[1] SENBATI·Yeeran;YANG Huiguo;LIU Nana(Institute of Animal Husbandry Economics and Information,Xinjiang Academy of Animal Husbandry Sciences,Urumqi 830011,China;Institute of Animal Science,Xinjiang Academy of Animal Science,Xinjiang Academy of Animal Husbandry Sciences,Urumqi 830011,China)

机构地区：[1]新疆畜牧科学院畜牧业经济与信息研究所,乌鲁木齐830011 [2]新疆畜牧科学院畜牧研究所,乌鲁木齐830011

出　　处：《草食家畜》2025年第2期39-47,共9页Grass-Feeding Livestock

基　　金：新疆维吾尔自治区重大科技专项“新疆农区多胎(多羔)绵羊种质创新工程”(2023A02004);新疆现代农业产业技术体系—羊产业技术体系专项经费项目(XJARS-09)。

摘　　要：【目的】旨在分析2024年全国及新疆羊产业形势,跟踪了解新疆12家监测企业生产经营等情况,并对2025年羊产业进行趋势预测。【方法】结合产业动态信息和市场行情,采取定性和定量相结合的方法。【结果】2024年新疆羊肉平均价格下降趋势明显,主要饲料产品平均价格均有所下降,新疆羊肉居民人均消费量稳中有增,新疆羊存栏量同比下降幅度较为明显,羊肉产量、羊出栏量同比下降幅度较小,活羊调运量有所增加。12家监测企业羊繁殖率、出栏率稳步提升,羔羊成活率小幅下降,羊单位平均总成本、平均利润呈下降态势。【结论】预计2025年羊肉价格继续下跌的可能性较小,短期内价格可能还将保持震荡运行。羊肉消费增长是大趋势,但增速可能会趋于平缓。随着羊肉需求增长、支持政策的叠加作用,新疆羊产业基本盘和羊肉供给将趋于稳定。总体而言,养殖成本大幅下降的可能性不大,但随着饲草料成本的下降,养殖户利润空间可能会有所增大。【Objective】Analyzing the national and Xinjiang sheep industry situation in 2024,this article tracks and understands the production and operation of 12 monitoring enterprises in Xinjiang,and conducts a trend analysis of the sheep industry in 2025.【Methods】Combining industry dynamic information and market conditions,qualitative and quantitative methods were adopted.【Results】In 2024,the price of lamb in Xinjiang showed a significant downward trend,with the average prices of major feed products decreasing.The per capita consumption of lamb among Xinjiang residents remained stable and increased,while the yearon-year decline in sheep inventory was more significant.The year-on-year decline in lamb production and output was relatively small,and the volume of live sheep transported increased.The breeding rate and slaughter rate of sheep in 12 monitoring enterprises have steadily increased,while the survival rate of lambs has slightly decreased.The average total cost and average profit of sheep units have shown a downward trend.【Conclusion】It is expected that the possibility of lamb prices continuing to decline in 2025 is small,and they may continue to fluctuate in the short term.The increase in lamb consumption is a major trend,but the growth rate may tend to be flat.With the growth of lamb demand and the combination of supportive policies,the basic situation of Xinjiang's sheep industry and lamb supply will stabilize.The overall possibility of a significant decrease in breeding costs is unlikely.With the decrease in forage costs,the profit margin of farmers may increase.

关 键 词：新疆 羊产业 羊肉产量 活羊调运 羊肉价格 

分 类 号：S8-9[农业科学—畜牧兽医]