基于灰色关联度和STIRPAT的建筑人均碳排放影响因素分析  

Study on the influencing factors of carbon emission per capita in buildings based on grey correlation and STIRPAT

作　　者：魏梦娣 龚志起[1] 喇建明 WEI Mengdi;GONG Zhiqi;LA Jianming(School of Civil Engineering and Water Conservancy,Qinghai University,Xining 810016,China)

机构地区：[1]青海大学土木水利学院,青海西宁810016

出　　处：《四川建材》2025年第4期44-47,64,共5页Sichuan Building Materials

基　　金：教育部春晖计划—低碳建筑推进的激励机制:以青海省办公及商业建筑为例(HZKY20220457)。

摘　　要：探究建筑人均碳排放影响因素对于实现碳达峰、碳中和的目标具有重要意义。基于青海省2004—2019年的能源消耗量数据,定量分析了青海省建筑碳排放的时序特征,并采用灰色关联度和STIRPAT模型分析了青海省建筑人均二氧化碳排放的关键驱动因素。结果表明:①青海省建筑人均碳排放呈现波动上升的趋势,不同建筑碳排放占比来源从大到小排序为公共建筑、城镇住宅建筑、农村住宅建筑、城镇供暖;②影响建筑人均碳排放的因素按影响程度大小排序为人口规模、城市化水平、人均居住面积、人均GDP、创新能力,其弹性系数依次为0.828、0.300、0.095、0.045、0.019;③人口规模、城市化水平、人均居住面积、人均GDP、创新能力均对青海省建筑人均碳排放起促进作用。Exploring the factors influencing per capita carbon emissions in buildings is important for achieving the goal of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality.Based on the energy consumption data of Qinghai Province from 2004 to 2019,the time-series characteristics of carbon emissions from buildings in Qinghai Province were quantitatively analyzed,and the key drivers of carbon emissions per capita from buildings in Qinghai Province were analyzed using gray correlation and STIRPAT model.The results showed as follows:①The per capita carbon emissions of buildings in Qinghai Province showed a fluctuating upward trend.The sources of carbon emissions from different buildings were ranked in descending order:public buildings,urban residential buildings,rural residential buildings,and urban heating;②The factors affecting per capita carbon emissions from buildings were ranked according to the degree of impact:population size,urbanization level,per capita living area,per capita GDP,and innovation ability.The elastic coefficients are:0.828,0.300,0.095,0.045,0.019;③Population size,urbanization level,per capita living area,per capita GDP,and innovation capacity all play a catalytic role in the per capita carbon emissions of buildings in Qinghai Province.

关 键 词：建筑人均碳排放 影响因素 灰色关联度 STIRPAT 

分 类 号：TU984.11[建筑科学—城市规划与设计] X322[环境科学与工程—环境工程]