农村长期护理保险对家庭消费的激励效应研究  

The Incentive Effects of Rural Long-Term Care Insurance on Household Consumption

作　　者：于新亮 黄俊铭 张程荷 Yu Xinliang;Huang Junming;Zhang Chenghe

机构地区：[1]山东财经大学保险学院 [2]南京大学政府管理学院 [3]南开大学周恩来政府管理学院

出　　处：《金融经济学研究》2025年第2期114-129,共16页Financial Economics Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(72274107);山东省泰山学者工程专项经费资助(tsqn202312226);山东省高等学校青创科技支持计划(2022RW044)。

摘　　要：利用中国健康与养老追踪调查(CHARLS)数据建立多时点双重差分模型,实证检验农村长期护理保险对家庭消费的影响及其机制。研究结果表明,长期护理保险对老年家庭消费产生了显著的激励效应,平均提升幅度为21.63%~22.37%;该激励效应存在减弱家庭预防性储蓄动机、降低医疗费用支出和促进子女外出就业等三个传导机制。同时,长期护理保险也显著影响农村家庭消费结构:在家庭内部,受保障水平限制,仅对生存性消费存在显著促进作用,而对发展性消费的激励效果尚未显现;在家庭间,对低消费水平家庭的影响更显著。结论为构建中国农村地区养老照护体系和财政支持体系,刺激农村地区消费潜力的释放提供了经验证据。Utilizing data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study(CHARLS),a multi-time point difference-in-differences model was developed in this study,with the aim of empirically assessing the impact of rural long-term care insurance on household consumption and its mechanisms.The findings indicated that long-term care insurance generated a significant incentive effect on the consumption of older adult households,with an average treatment effect ranging between 21.63%and 22.37%.Three transmission mechanisms were identified:reducing the motive for precautionary savings,decreasing medical expenses,and facilitating the employment of children outside their hometowns.Long-term care insurance significantly influenced the structure of rural household consumption.Within households,insurance primarily boosted subsistence consumption due to coverage limitations,with no significant incentive effects evident on developmental consumption.Between households,the impact was more pronounced among those with lower consumption levels.These results provide empirical evidence to support the development of a care system for older adults,a fiscal support structure in rural China,and stimulation of the release of consumption potential in rural areas.

关 键 词：长期护理保险 家庭消费 消费结构 多时点双重差分 

分 类 号：F063.2[经济管理—政治经济学]