政府引导基金对新兴产业投资双重引导作用的机制分析  

An Analysis of Dual Guiding Mechanism of Government Venture Capital Guiding Funds on Investment in Emerging Industries

作　　者：李扬子 孙早[1] 马欣昕 LI Yang-zi;SUN Zao;MA Xin-xin(School of economics and finance,Xi’an Jiaotong University,Xi’an 710061;International Business School,Hainan University,Haikou 570228,China)

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学经济与金融学院,陕西西安710061 [2]海南大学国际商学院,海南海口570228

出　　处：《兰州大学学报(社会科学版)》2025年第1期16-35,共20页Journal of Lanzhou University(Social Sciences)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“文化产业数字化价值创造的机理、效果及提升研究”(72474177);国家自然科学基金项目“文化产业融合发展的机理、演化及实现路径研究”(71974158)。

摘　　要：根据“壮大新兴产业,布局建设未来产业,完善现代产业体系”的产业发展战略,通过建立“政府—社会资本—基金管理公司”三方演化博弈模型,分析政府引导基金对新兴产业投资的双重引导作用,运用MATLAB进行数值仿真。研究发现:在社会资本不充分进入市场的前提下,增大政府让利份额可以鼓励社会资本投资,而在社会资本已充分进入的前提下,适当减小政府让利份额可以加快有效均衡的收敛速度,并能够将次有效均衡和无效均衡转化为有效均衡。政府可以通过加强基金管理公司违规信息披露、签约时明确违约赔偿,建立可信的法律威胁等措施增加基金管理公司的违规成本,促使其按规划投资。同时,政府在建立引导基金前应对目标产业进行考察,对研发投入大、创新周期长、创新溢出收益显著高于行业平均投资回报的幼稚期企业进行政策倾斜,提高资源配置效率。In accordance with the industrial development strategy of“strengthening emerging industries,laying out the construction of future industries,and improving the modern industrial system”,this study analyzes the dual guiding effect of government venture capital guiding funds on investment in emerging industries by establishing a tripartite evolutionary game model of“government-social venture capital-fund management company”.Through numerical simulation using MATLAB,it found that when the social venture capital enters the market insufficiently,increasing the government’s profit-sharing concession can encourage social venture capital investment.By contrast,when social capital has already entered sufficiently,appropriately reducing the government’s profit-sharing concession can accelerate the convergence speed of effective equilibrium and transform sub-effective and ineffective equilibria into effective equilibrium.The government can increase the violation cost of fund management companies by strengthening the disclosure of violation information,clearly stipulating default compensation in contract,and establishing a credible legal threat,thereby urging them to invest as planned.Meanwhile,before establishing the government venture capital guiding funds,the government should investigate the target industries and give policy preference to emerging enterprises with high R&D investment,long innovation cycle,and significantly higher innovation spillover benefits than the industry average return on investment in the infant stage to improve the efficiency of resource allocation.

关 键 词：政府引导基金 社会资本 基金管理公司 双重引导作用 演化博弈 

分 类 号：F832[经济管理—金融学]