基于区域气候模式的浙江省春茶开采期霜冻害变化趋势预估  

Projecting the Variation Trend of Frost Damage in Spring Tea PickingPeriod in Zhejiang Province Based on PRECIS

作　　者：张玉静 傅良 金志凤[3] Zhang Yujing;Fu Liang;Jin Zhifeng(Hangzhou Meteorological Office,Hangzhou 310051,China;Zhejiang Meteorological Observatory,Hangzhou 310008,China;Zhejiang Climate Center,Hangzhou 310008,China)

机构地区：[1]杭州市气象局,杭州310051 [2]浙江省气象台,杭州310008 [3]浙江省气候中心,杭州310008

出　　处：《气象与环境科学》2025年第2期73-83,共11页Meteorological and Environmental Sciences

基　　金：浙江省气象局一般项目(2022YB14);浙江省科技厅重点研发计划项目(2021C02036)。

摘　　要：茶叶是浙江省重要的经济作物之一,春季霜冻害是威胁春茶生产的主要农业气象灾害。为合理利用气候资源,规避气候风险,协调产业规划与应对技术措施,助力浙江省茶产业持续健康发展,基于区域气候模拟系统PRECIS(Providing REgional Climates for Impact Studies)输出的未来RCPs(Representative Concentration Pathways)气候情景RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下逐日气象数据,分析了未来茶叶开采期变化及霜冻害风险的变化趋势。结果显示,到21世纪中叶,浙江省春茶萌芽期气温较气候基准时段明显升高,春茶开采期随之提前。在RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下,早生茶种开采期将分别提前10.1 d和12.2 d,晚生茶种将分别提前5.6 d和10.3 d,早生茶种提前天数多于晚生茶种的,且东部沿海地区提前天数多于西部和北部地区的。受气候变暖影响,开采期间霜冻害风险有所降低,低排放情景较高排放情景下霜冻日数减少得更多,晚生茶种比早生茶种霜冻日数减少幅度更明显。在RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下,早生茶种霜冻日数将分别减少0.8 d和0 d,晚生茶种将分别减少2.4 d和1.5 d。综合来看,由于升温幅度与不同品种茶树对气候变化的敏感程度差异,未来情景下早生茶种比晚生茶种受霜冻害威胁的可能性更大,且高排放情景下比低排放情景下受霜冻害的可能性更大。Tea(Camellia sinensis)is a major cash crop in Zhejiang Province,frost damage in spring is the most serious agro-meteorological disaster threatening the tea production.To rationally using climate resources,avoid climate risks,coordinate tea planting distribution and adapt technical measures to climate change,and contribute to the sustainable and healthy development of the tea industry in Zhejiang Province,this study adopts the daily meteorological data by regional climate modeling system PRECIS(Providing REgional Climates for Impact Studies)under climate scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 and analyzes the variation trend of tea picking period and spring frost damage risk in the future.The results show that:By mid-21st century,the mean temperature during tea bud stage are projected to increase obviously relative to the climate baseline period,and the tea picking stage would advance accordingly.For the early sprouting tea variety,it would advance by 10.1 d and 12.2 d under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5,respectively,while those for the late sprouting tea variety would advance by 5.6 d and 10.3 d under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5.More advancing days in tea picking stage would appear in early sprouting tea variety than that in late sprouting tea variety,and more advancing days would appear in the eastern costal region than that in the western and northern region.Affected by climate warming,the risk of frost damage during the tea picking period would reduce.The number of frost days would reduce more under the low emission scenario than that under the high emission scenario,and the reduction degree of the late sprouting tea variety is more obvious than that of the early sprouting tea variety.Under the scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5,the frost days of early sprouting tea variety would reduce by 0.8 d and 0 d,respectively,while the frost days would reduce by 2.4 d and 1.5 d for the late sprouting tea variety.In conclusion,due to the different warming rates under climate scenarios and the sensitivity of different tea varieties to climate change,tea frost d

关 键 词：气候变化 区域气候模式 春茶 开采期 霜冻害 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] S16[农业科学—农业气象学]