未成年子女数量对城镇有房家庭需求性住房债务的影响——来自CHFS的微观证据  

Effect of Number of Minor Children on Demand Housing Debt of Urban Householder Households:Micro Evidence from CHFS

作　　者：谢绵陛[1] 赵莹莹 XIE Mianbi;ZHAO Yingying(College of Finance and Economics,Jimei University,Xiamen 361021,China)

机构地区：[1]集美大学财经学院,福建厦门361021

出　　处：《东莞理工学院学报》2025年第2期66-74,共9页Journal of Dongguan University of Technology

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“城镇家庭债务的形成及其对经济增长与金融稳定的影响机制研究”(20BJY238)。

摘　　要：目前,我国经过多次生育政策调整,家庭人口出生率仍处于较低水平,家庭住房负债却呈持续增长趋势。基于2013—2021年五期中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)数据,探究未成年子女数量对城镇有房家庭需求性住房债务的影响和作用机制。研究发现,未成年子女数量的增加会显著推高家庭住房债务收入比,而且该现象在低收入家庭中更加明显,说明在收入不平等的背景下,低收入家庭基于育儿因素的住房偿债压力更大。未成年子女数量还通过增加家庭人均生存发展型消费,对住房债务收入比产生正向影响。其次,家庭劳动参与率可以缓解未成年子女数量对住房债务收入比的促进作用,且有已婚就业女性家庭的缓解作用更强。因此,需进一步落实和完善我国积极生育支持措施,关注家庭偿债风险和已婚女性职业发展,稳定房地产市场,以求降低家庭债务压力,提高生育意愿。At present,after many birth policy adjustments,China’s household birth rate is still relatively low,while household housing indebtedness is on a continuous growth trend.Based on panel data from the five Chinese Household Finance Survey(CHFS)periods from 2013-2021,we explore the impact and mechanism of the number of minor children on urban households’demand for housing debt.We find that the increase in the number of minor children will significantly increase the household housing debt-to-income ratio,and this phenomenon is more significant in low-income households,indicating that in the context of income inequality,low-income households have greater housing debt repayment pressure based on childcare factors.The number of minor children also positively impacts the housing debt-to-income ratio by increasing the household’s per capita subsistence and developmental consumption.Secondly,the household labor participation rate can alleviate the promotion effect of the number of minor children on the housing debt-to-income ratio,and this mitigating effect is stronger for families with employed married women.Therefore,it is necessary to implement further and improve China’s positive fertility support measures,focusing on family debt repayment risk and married women’s career development,and stabilizing the real estate market,to reduce household debt pressure and improve fertility intention.

关 键 词：未成年子女数量 住房债务收入比 需求性住房 双向固定效应模型 

分 类 号：F063.4[经济管理—政治经济学]