低碳生态视角下河北省城市土地利用效益时空特征及多情景模拟  

Spatiotemporal characteristics and multi-scenario simulation of urban land use efficiency in Hebei Province from a low-carbon ecological perspective

作　　者：王宇桐 WANG Yutong(China Agricultural University,Beijing 100091,China)

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学,北京100091

出　　处：《河北省科学院学报》2025年第2期35-41,共7页Journal of The Hebei Academy of Sciences

摘　　要：研究河北省城市土地利用效益时空特征及多情景模拟,对于引导全省城市土地利用发展方向,优化土地利用结构,促进城市高质量发展具有重要意义。本文基于低碳生态视角,通过构建评价指标体系,测算了河北省2012—2021年11个地级市的城市土地利用效益,分析了其时间演变趋势和空间分布特征。在此基础上,采用多情景模拟预测2030年河北省各城市土地利用效益,研究结论如下:①河北省城市土地利用效益呈现显著的空间分异特征,土地利用综合效益高值区域主要集中在石家庄-廊坊-秦皇岛,低值区域主要分布在张家口-承德。②2012—2021年,河北省城市土地利用效益整体呈波动性上升趋势,其中衡水市增长最快,其次为廊坊市。研究期间,石家庄-廊坊始终处于土地利用效益的高值区域,秦皇岛由较高区域变为高值区域。承德市稳居低值区域。③从模拟结果来看,石家庄-廊坊-唐山土地利用效益在不同情景下均处于高值区域,张家口市与承德市均处于低值或较低水平。Investigating the spatiotemporal characteristics and multi-scenario simulations of urban land use efficiency(ULUE)in Hebei Province is crucial for guiding the province's urban land use development,optimizing land use structures,and promoting high-quality urban development.From a low-carbon ecological perspective,this paper establishes an evaluation index system to calculate the ULUE of 11 prefecture-level cities in Hebei from 2012 to 2021,analyzing the temporal evolution trends and spatial distribution characteristics.Based on this,multi-scenario simulations are used to predict the ULUE in 2030 across Hebei cities.The findings are as follows:①ULUE in Hebei Province exhibits significant spatial differentiation,with high-efficiency areas mainly concentrated in Shijiazhuang-Langfang-Qinhuangdao,and low-efficiency areas primarily in Zhangjiakou-Chengde.②From 2012 to 2021,the overall ULUE in Hebei showed a fluctuating upward trend,with the fastest growth in Hengshui,followed by Langfang.During the study period,Shijiazhuang-Langfang consistently remained in high-efficiency areas,with Qinhuangdao transitioning from a higher to a high-efficiency area,and Chengde consistently in the low-efficiency area.③Simulation results indicate that Shijiazhuang-Langfang-Tangshan will remain in high-efficiency areas under various scenarios,while Zhangjiakou and Chengde will remain in low or relatively low levels.

关 键 词：低碳生态视角 城市土地利用效益 时空特征 多情景模拟 

分 类 号：K903[历史地理—人文地理学]