基于多智能体的智能自主系统任务可靠性评估方法  

Task reliability evaluation method for autonomous intelligent system based on multi-agent approach

作　　者：杨诚 刘虹晓 王莹 杨京礼 YANG Cheng;LIU Hongxiao;WANG Ying;YANG Jingli(China Institute of Marine Technology&Economy,Beijing 100081,China;School of Electronics and Information Engineering,Harbin Institute of Technology,Harbin 150001,China)

机构地区：[1]中国船舶集团有限公司综合技术经济研究院,北京100081 [2]哈尔滨工业大学电子与信息工程学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150001

出　　处：《中国舰船研究》2025年第2期335-349,共15页Chinese Journal of Ship Research

摘　　要：[目的]针对智能自主系统因组成要素解耦、系统状态多变、故障传播规律复杂等特点导致其任务可靠性难以准确评估的问题,提出一种基于多智能体的智能自主系统任务可靠性评估方法。[方法]通过构建基于双层网络结构的可靠性仿真框架,实现智能自主系统信息传播过程和故障传播过程的分离表达与耦合关联;通过设计智能自主系统中各类组成元素的属性、行为与接口,搭建具备通用性的故障传播与状态切换机制;在分析智能自主系统任务可靠性影响要素的基础上,制定多阶段任务成功判据;基于Anylogic仿真平台,开发具备单次过程仿真与多次蒙特卡洛仿真能力的智能自主系统任务可靠性评估模型。[结果]仿真结果表明,所提方法能够实现智能自主系统典型任务的可靠性定量评估,并能挖掘影响智能自主系统任务可靠性的关键故障因素。[结论]所提方法可支撑智能自主系统任务可靠性量化评估与设计改进。[Objective]Aiming at the problem that the task reliability of autonomous intelligent systems is difficult to evaluate accurately due to such characteristics as the decoupling of components,changing systems,and complex fault propagation laws,this paper proposes a multi-agent-based task reliability evaluation method for autonomous intelligent systems.[Methods]By constructing a reliability simulation framework based on a double-layer network structure,the separation expression and coupling correlation of the autonomous intelligent system's information propagation process and fault propagation process are realized.By designing the attributes,behaviors,and interfaces of various components in the autonomous intelligent system,a universal fault propagation and state switching mechanism is built.Based on an analysis of the factors affecting the task reliability of the autonomous intelligent system,a multi-stage task success criterion is established.Finally,based on the Anylogic simulation platform,a task reliability evaluation model for autonomous intelligent systems is developed which is capable of single process simulation and multiple Monte Carlo simulation.[Results]The simulation results show that the proposed method can quantitatively evaluate the reliability of the typical tasks of intelligent autonomous systems,as well as exploring the key fault factors affecting such reliability.[Conclusion]The proposed method can support the quantitative evaluation of the task reliability of intelligent autonomous systems and the improvement of their design.

关 键 词：智能系统 自主系统 可靠性 任务可靠性 可靠性评估 多智能体 

分 类 号：U661.73[交通运输工程—船舶及航道工程]