家庭借贷能否抑制牧户过度放牧——来自内蒙古中西部牧区的经验证据  

Can Household Borrowing Curb Overgrazing:Empirical Evidence from Pastoral Areas of Central and Western Inner Mongolia

作　　者：滕晨光 吕开字 韩枫 张崇尚[1] TENG Chenguang;LYU Kaiyu;HAN Feng;ZHANG Chongshang

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所,北京100081 [2]国家林业和草原局发展研究中心,北京100714

出　　处：《农业技术经济》2025年第4期54-70,共17页Journal of Agrotechnical Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“草原生态补奖政策对牧民调整草场经营行为的影响研究:作用机理、实证分析与政策优化”(编号:72104063),国家自然科学基金面上项目“劳动力成本上升背景下新型农业经营主体用工适应性调整与生产率提升研究”(编号:72473135),国家自然科学基金项目“我国农业保险对农户新技术采纳行为的影响与机制研究”(编号:72003186);中国农业科学院科技创新工程(编号:10-IAED-RC-10-2024,CAAS-CSAERD-202402,10-IAED-03-2024);安徽省科技创新战略与软科学研究专项“科技支撑千亿斤江淮粮仓建设路径研究”(编号:202306f01050011)。

摘　　要：超载过牧一直是草原生态保护面临的难题,而信贷支持有助于提升牧户饲草获取能力,加速其向现代养殖方式转变,减少对天然草场的依赖,这对于维持草畜平衡具有重要的现实意义。本文基于微观牧户调研数据,利用倾向值匹配(PSM)法研究了家庭借贷对于牧户放牧强度的影响,并从借贷的规模、期限和利率以及牧户年龄、经营规模、干旱冲击损失等角度进行了差异分析。结果表明:(1)牧户家庭借贷行为有助于降低放牧强度,并且结果稳健;(2)家庭借贷的规模、期限以及利率对于牧户放牧强度具有明显的组间差异,平均而言,金额约为10万元、期限超过2年、利率4.97%的信贷产品抑制效果明显;(3)家庭借贷对降低放牧强度的作用在不同年龄组、不同经营规模组和不同干旱冲击损失组之间存在明显差异,对于年龄超过51岁、经营面积低于苏木平均规模、干旱冲击损失小于5.5万元的群体,家庭借贷对过度放牧抑制作用更加明显。基于此,建议在当前牧区制度情境下,加大草原牧区生态金融产品的信贷支持,精细化创新牧区草畜平衡的专项产品,增加应对突发灾害冲击的短期或季节性信贷,发挥借贷对于牧户应对灾害冲击和降低放牧强度的积极作用。Overgrazing has long posed a significant challenge to the conservation of grassland ecological protection.Financial assistance can help facilitate herders'ability to obtain forage in the market,expedite their transformation to modern breeding practices,and diminish their reliance on natural grassland,which is of great practical significance in achieving the goal of grasslivestock balance.Based on the survey data from 318 pastoral households,this paper employs a propensity score matching(PSM)method to analyzes the impact of household borrowing on herders'grazing intensity.The heterogeneous effects of the size,duration and interest rate of borrowing,as well as herders'age,operational scale and scale of loss under drought shock are discussed.The results show that:(1)The household borrowing behavior of herders could help reduce grazing intensity,and that the results are found to be robust.(2)The size,duration and interest rate of household borrowing had a markedly heterogeneous effect among groups on herders'grazing intensity,and on average,the inhibition effect of credit products with an amount of approximately 100,000 yuan,a term of more than 2 years,and an interest rate of 4.97%is evident.(3)The effect of household borrowing on reducing grazing intensity differed significantly across age groups,operational scale groups and drought impact loss scale groups.The inhibition effect of borrowing is particularly pronounced for households over 51 years old,with operational areas smaller than the average size of Sumu and a drought impact losses of less than 55,000 yuan.In light of these findings,under the current situation of pastoral system,it is suggested to increase the credit support of ecological financial products in grassland and pastoral areas.Furthermore,special financial products for grassland and livestock balance in pastoral areas should be refined and innovated.Additionally,more short-term or seasonal credit products should be provided to cope with the impact of sudden disasters.Finally,the positive role of lo

关 键 词：牧户 借贷 草畜平衡 放牧强度 倾向值匹配 

分 类 号：F326.3[经济管理—产业经济]