俄乌冲突导致的国际粮食价格波动效应与我国的应对措施  

Effect of International Food Price Fluctuation Caused by the Russia-Ukraine Conflict and China's Countermeasures

作　　者：马理 张人中 马威[1] MA Li;ZHANG Renzhong;MA Wei

机构地区：[1]湖南大学金融与统计学院,长沙410079

出　　处：《农业技术经济》2025年第4期124-144,共21页Journal of Agrotechnical Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“发达国家货币政策跨国传导的复杂溢出效应:开放经济条件下的DSGE多国模型与VAR数据检验”(编号:72073042);国家社会科学基金一般项目“俄罗斯被剔除SWIFT的影响效应与我国加快推CIPS建设的路径选择”(编号:23BGJ089);湖南省研究生科研创新项目“促进湖南省低碳产业发展的绿色金融政策研究”(编号:QL20220110)。

摘　　要：俄乌冲突引发了国际粮食价格的短期大幅波动,对粮食进口依赖程度不同的国家产生了差异化的影响。本文通过构建两部门的开放经济模型,分析了俄乌冲突对国际粮食价格波动的影响机理;并采用反事实检验与向量自回归方法,研究了俄乌冲突带来的国际粮食价格波动以及对粮食进口依赖程度不同国家经济的差异化影响。研究显示,俄乌冲突导致了国际粮食价格上涨和粮食价格波动加剧;国际粮食价格上涨与粮食价格波动导致了粮食进口依赖程度较高的国家汇率贬值和股市下跌,而对粮食进口依赖程度较低的国家影响较小。本文认为,应高度重视粮食安全问题,防范国际粮食价格波动带来的短期风险,加强粮食交易的国际贸易与合作,增强外汇市场和股票市场的韧性。The conflict between Russia-Ukraine triggered short-term sharp fluctuations in international food prices,which had a differentiated impact on countries with different dependence on food imports.This paper constructs an open economic model and analyzes the mechanism of the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the fluctuation of international food prices.The counterfactual test and VAR are used to study the fluctuation of international food prices caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the differential impact of national economies with different dependence on food imports.It shows that the Russia-Ukraine conflict has led to the rise of international food prices and the intensification of food price fluctuations.The rise in international grain prices and fluctuations in grain prices have led to a depreciation of exchange rates and a decline in stock markets in countries with higher dependence on grain imports.Policy recommendations are to attach great importance to food security issues,prevent short-term risks caused by fluctuations in international food prices,strengthen international trade and cooperation in grain trading,and enhance the resilience of the foreign exchange and stock markets.

关 键 词：俄乌冲突 国际粮食价格波动 差异化影响 应对措施 

分 类 号：F326.11[经济管理—产业经济]