未来产业市场规模评估测算方法构建思路研究  

Research on the Construction of Assessment and Calculation Methods for the Market Size of Future Industries

作　　者：陈劲[1,2] 张可人 朱子钦 宋琪[3] Chen Jin;Zhang Keren;Zhu Ziqin;Song Qi(School of Economics and Management,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China;Research Center for Technological Innovation,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China;Peking University Science Park,Beijing 100080,China)

机构地区：[1]清华大学经济管理学院,北京100084 [2]清华大学技术创新研究中心,北京100084 [3]北京大学国家大学科技园,北京100080

出　　处：《创新科技》2025年第4期20-29,共10页Innovation science and technology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划重点专项“面向未来产业生态的科技服务平台技术研发与应用”(2022YFF0903200);国家自然科学基金项目“面向未来产业的‘四链’融合创新发展机制与政策研究”(72304163)。

摘　　要：未来产业是国家新质生产力发展的重要载体,也是企业赢得持续竞争优势的制高点。有效评估和测算未来产业的市场规模能够为产业发展、科技决策提供科学依据,是优化资源配置和风险管理的重要支撑。研究从技术类型(替代型、颠覆型、改造提升型)和产业类型(消费型、出口导向型、中间投入型)两个维度出发,构建了未来产业市场规模评估测算的3×3矩阵,并针对9个类别分别细化了评估测算指标的构建思路,为进一步全面量化评估不同“技术—产业耦合组态”的市场潜力、战略价值和政策适配性提供了方向借鉴。研究为各级政府因地制宜地精准化制定科技和产业政策提供了数据支撑与决策参考,也为以企业为代表的未来产业创新培育主体优化发展战略、科学管控风险提供了可选工具。Future industries serve as the core carrier for national new quality productivity development,and it is also the high ground for enterprises to secure sustained competitive advantages.Effectively assessing and measuring the market size of these industries can provide a scientific basis for industrial and technological decisions and is an important support for optimizing resource allocation and risk management.Although there are already various methods for assessing and measuring the scale of industries,these methods have certain limitations for the highly uncertain emerging field of future industries.In addition,future industries are characterized by multiple types and pathways.Traditional assessment and measurement methods often focus on a single technology or industry,making it difficult to conduct a systematic analysis of the coupling relationship and cross-impact between different technologies and industry types.This is especially true in cases where different algorithms and models can lead to significant differences in assessment results.Consequently,it is urgent to conduct in-depth research on how to select appropriate algorithms and models for different"technology-industry coupling configurations",as well as how to validate and optimize these models.In response to this,the study constructed a 3×3 matrix for future industry assessment and measurement from two dimensions:technology type(including substitution type,disruptive type,and transformation and upgrading type)and industry type(comprised of consumption type,export-oriented type,and intermediate input type).The proposed assessment and measurement indicators were categorized into nine groups,leading to a systematic approach for assessing and measuring the market size of future industries.Meanwhile,the study conducted a cross-coupling analysis between technology types and industry types,elucidating the differentiated development patterns associated with various"technology industry coupling configurations".For each type of configuration,assessment and ca

关 键 词：新质生产力 未来产业 市场规模 战略管理 评估测算 

分 类 号：C931[经济管理—管理学]