基于FLUS和InVEST模型的河南省氮素面源污染时空变化特征模拟及预测  

Simulation and Prediction of Spatiotemporal Variation Characteristics of Nitrogen Nonpoint Source Pollution in Henan Province Based on FLUS and InVEST Models

作　　者：张进财 姬广兴 李青松[1] 李萌 高红凯 陈伟强[1] 郭宇龙 ZHANG Jin-cai;JI Guang-xing;LI Qing-song;LI Meng;GAO Hong-kai;CHEN Wei-qiang;GUO Yu-long(College of Resources and Environmental Sciences,Henan Agricultural University,Zhengzhou 450046,China;School of Geographic Sciences,East China Normal University,Shanghai 200241,China)

机构地区：[1]河南农业大学资源与环境学院,郑州450046 [2]华东师范大学地理科学学院,上海200241

出　　处：《环境科学》2025年第4期2242-2249,共8页Environmental Science

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFD1700900);国家自然科学基金项目(42122002,42071081);河南农业大学拔尖人才项目(30501031)。

摘　　要：为了探究气候变化背景下河南省氮素面源污染特征,首先,利用InVEST模型模拟河南省2000~2020年氮素面源污染负荷及其时空分布;之后,将FLUS模型与InVEST模型耦合,模拟河南省在SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5两种气候情景下2030~2050年的氮素面源污染负荷及其空间分布.研究结果表明:①在2000~2020年期间,河南省氮素输出总量和负荷先上升后下降,整体上保持下降水平.②在空间分布上,2000~2020年氮输出负荷整体呈现出“平原高,山丘低”的特征,可见氮素面源污染与地形有极大关系.③在SSP2-4.5情景下2030~2050年氮素输出的总量和负荷均值逐年升高,但其整体变化规律较为复杂;在SSP5-8.5情景下2030~2050年氮素输出的总量和负荷均值先下降后升高,但其整体变化规律一致.依据研究结果,结合河南省实际情况,可为河南省未来的面源污染防控提供理论依据.To elucidate the characteristics of nitrogen non-point source pollution in Henan Province under the influence of climate change,this study initially utilized the InVEST model to simulate the temporal and spatial distribution of the N non-point source pollution load in Henan Province from 2000 to 2020,subsequently coupling the FLUS model with the InVEST model,nitrogen point source pollution load,and its spatial distribution in Henan Province from 2030 to 2050 under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 climate scenarios.The findings of the study indicated that:①Between 2000 and 2020,the total nitrogen output and load in Henan Province initially increased before decreasing,maintaining an overall downward trend.②In terms of spatial distribution,the nitrogen output load from 2000 to 2020 displayed a pattern of“high in the plains,low in hilly areas,”indicating a strong correlation between nitrogen non-point source pollution and topography.③Under the SSP2-4.5 scenario,the total nitrogen output and load were projected to increase annually from 2030 to 2050,with a complex overall change pattern;under the SSP5-8.5 scenario,the total nitrogen output and load were anticipated to decrease initially before increasing,with a consistent overall change pattern.Based on these results and in conjunction with the practical situation of Henan Province,it is hoped that this research can provide a theoretical foundation for the prevention and control of future non-point source pollution in the province.

关 键 词：河南省 氮素面源污染 InVEST模型 FLUS模型 气候情景 

分 类 号：X52[环境科学与工程—环境工程]