中国对RCEP其他成员国水果出口增长影响因素分析  

Analysis of factors influencing the growth of China’s fruits exports to RCEP member states

作　　者：孙睿 李俊[1] SUN Rui;LI Jun(School of Economics and Management,Qingdao Agricultural University,Qingdao,Shandong,266109,China)

机构地区：[1]青岛农业大学经济管理学院,山东青岛266109

出　　处：《中国南方果树》2025年第2期227-233,共7页South China Fruits

基　　金：山东省社会科学规划研究项目(22CCXJ18);青岛市社会科学规划项目(QDSKL2001196);青岛农业大学高层次人才科研基金项目(1117706)资助。

摘　　要：中国生产的温带、亚热带干鲜水果在世界上享有盛誉,水果产品是我国在国际市场上具有竞争优势的农产品之一。2023年6月,区域全面经济伙伴关系协定(regional comprehensive economic partnership,RCEP)对15个签署国全面生效,为我国扩大农产品出口带来新机遇。为了推动我国水果对RCEP其他国家出口的增长,在分析2009—2022年中国水果对RCEP其他国家出口现状的基础之上,运用恒定市场份额模型(constant market share model,CMS模型)分析了2009—2022年中国水果对RCEP其他国家出口的波动特征及影响因素。结果表明,RCEP其他国家的水果进口需求规模变动是促进我国水果对RCEP其他国家出口波动的最主要原因,近期整体竞争力效应对我国水果出口的影响在逐渐增强。产品结构效应和产品竞争力效应也在一定程度上影响了我国对RCEP其他国家的水果出口。我国应抓住疫情后RCEP其他国家水果需求规模恢复增长的机遇,充分利用RCEP协定推进贸易便利化,降低贸易成本,调整产品结构,提高出口竞争力,促进水果出口增长。The temperate and subtropical dry and fresh fruits produced in China are renowned worldwide.Fruit products are one of the agricultural products in China with competitive advantages in the international market.In June 2023,the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership(RCEP)came into full effect for 15 signatory countries,bringing new opportunities for China to expand its agricultural products exports.In order to promote the growth of China’s fruit exports to other RCEP countries,based on the analysis of the current situation of China’s fruit exports to other RCEP countries from 2009 to 2022,the constant market share model(CMS model)was used to analyze the fluctuation characteristics and influencing factors of China’s fruit exports to other RCEP countries from 2009 to 2022.The results indicated that changes in the scale of fruit import demand in other RCEP countries was the main reason for the fluctuation of China’s fruit exports to other RCEP countries,and the overall competitiveness effect on China’s fruit exports was gradually increasing in recent times.The product structure effect and product competitiveness effect had also to some extent affected China’s fruit exports to other RCEP countries.We should seize the opportunity of the recovery and growth of fruit demand in other RCEP countries after the epidemic,fully utilize the RCEP agreement to promote trade facilitation,reduce trade costs,adjust product structure,enhance export competitiveness,and promote fruit export growth.

关 键 词：RCEP 水果出口 CMS模型 

分 类 号：F752.62[经济管理—国际贸易]