社交活动对老年人主观预期寿命的影响  

The Impact of Social Activities on the Subjective Life Expectancy of the Elderly

作　　者：王晓峰[1] 刁翰 Wang Xiaofeng;Diao Han

机构地区：[1]吉林大学东北亚研究中心 [2]吉林大学东北亚学院

出　　处：《兰州学刊》2025年第2期195-205,共11页

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目“以人口高质量发展支撑中国式现代化的理论与政策研究”(项目编号:24&ZD157)。

摘　　要：随着中国老龄化程度加深,人口平均预期寿命的延长,健康老龄化正在成为社会政策、民生保障等领域的重要议题。文章基于中国健康与养老追踪调查(CHARLS) 2020年数据,针对过往研究中较少涉及的主观预期寿命健康维度,利用OLS回归、敏感性分析以及广义结构方程模型分析社交活动对老年人主观预期寿命的影响与影响机制。实证结果表明:第一,社交活动会对老年人的主观预期寿命产生显著的积极正向影响,且在性别异质性分析中,女性老年人相较于男性老年人,其主观预期寿命受社交活动影响程度更大。第二,为了防止生命累积混杂因素对实证结果的影响,在选择学历作为对比变量的情况下,用敏感性分析验证了原结论的稳健性。第三,社交活动会通过影响老年人身心健康和生活习惯两条中介路径对其主观预期寿命产生影响,且心理健康的中介效应较为显著。因此,应鼓励老年人积极参与社交活动。老年人应从自身条件出发,发挥能动性参与多类别的社交活动。基层政府与各类社区要形成合力,满足老年人日益多样的社交活动需求。除了当下重点关注的老年人身体健康外,其心理健康和生活习惯也是老年人健康维度中不可忽视的组成部分,应予以重视。As China’s aging population deepens and the average life expectancy of the population extends,healthy aging is becoming an important topic in the fields of social policy and social security.Based on the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study(CHARLS)2020 data,this paper focuses on the dimension of subjective life expectancy,which has been less explored in previous studies,and uses Ordinary Least Squares(OLS)regression,sensitivity analysis,and generalized structural equation modeling to analyze the impact of social activities on the subjective life expectancy of the elderly and the mechanisms behind this impact.The empirical results show:First,social activities have a significant positive impact on the subjective life expectancy of the elderly,and in gender heterogeneity analysis,the subjective life expectancy of female elderly is more affected by social activities than that of male elderly.Second,to prevent the impact of life cumulative confounding factors on the empirical results,the original conclusion was validated for robustness using sensitivity analysis with education level as a control variable.Third,social activities affect the subjective life expectancy of the elderly through two mediating pathways:mental and physical health and lifestyle habits,with the mediating effect of mental health being more significant.Therefore,it is encouraged that the elderly actively participate in social activities.The elderly should take initiative based on their own conditions and participate in various types of social activities.Grassroots governments and communities should work together to meet the increasingly diverse social activity needs of the elderly.In addition to the current focus on the physical health of the elderly,their mental health and lifestyle habits are also indispensable components of the health dimension of the elderly and should be given attention.

关 键 词：社交活动 主观预期寿命 老年健康 中介效应 

分 类 号：C913.6[经济管理]