农民工职业流动的成因及优化路径——基于公共就业服务和社会资本的影响研究  

The Causes and Optimization Path of Migrant Workers’Occupational Mobility——Impact Studies Based on Public Employment Services and Social Capital

作　　者：李珊珊 彭珈祺 Li Shanshan;Peng Jiaqi

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学经济与管理学院 [2]北京农学院经济管理学院

出　　处：《兰州学刊》2025年第2期206-220,共15页

基　　金：河北省统计科学研究计划项目(项目编号:2024HY16);中央高校基本科研业务费(项目编号:2023MS037)。

摘　　要：畅通有序的职业流动是扩大社会性流动、促进全民共同富裕的重要路径。文章将农民工职业流动设定为向上流动、平行流动和向下流动三个方向,从地区公共就业服务和农民工社会资本入手,运用竞争性风险模型等计量方法考察农民工职业流动的成因及优化路径。研究结果表明:(1)农民工职业流动性逐年增强,这主要是由农民工个体之间职业阶层变化引起的,而非宏观的整体职业结构变动效果。(2)社会资本和公共就业服务能促进农民工职业向上流动,公共就业服务能增强社会资本对农民工职业向上流动的促进作用,且具有正向累积效应。(3)划分不同类型农民工分析发现,公共就业服务更能增强低教育水平、本地户籍农民工的社会资本对职业向上流动的促进作用。基于上述研究结论,文章提出政府需要关注社会资本在劳动力市场中的正外部性作用,提高针对农民工群体的公共就业服务覆盖面,最大程度地发挥社会资本和公共就业服务促进农民工职业向上流动的积极作用。Smooth and orderly occupational mobility is an important way to expand social mobility and promote common prosperity.In this paper,the occupational mobility of migrant workers is divided into three directions:upward mobility,parallel mobility and downward mobility.Starting from regional public employment services and social capital of migrant workers,the paper uses competitive risk model and other measurement methods to investigate the causes and optimization paths of migrant workers’occupational mobility.The results of the study show that,(1)the occupational mobility of migrant workers shows an increasing trend year by year.This is mainly caused by changes in occupational stratification among individual migrant workers,rather than the effect of overall occupational changes at the macro level.(2)The use of social capital can promote the upward occupational mobility of migrant workers,and the public employment service can enhance the role of social capital in promoting the upward occupational mobility of migrant workers,and has a positive cumulative effect over time.(3)In terms of different types of migrant workers,public employment services can enhance the role of social capital in promoting upward occupational mobility for migrant workers with low education level and local household registration.The paper proposes that the government should recognize the positive externality of social capital in the labor market,improve the coverage of public employment services for migrant workers,and give play to the role of social capital and public employment services in promoting the occupational mobility.

关 键 词：职业流动 社会资本 公共就业服务 农民工 竞争性风险模型 

分 类 号：F323.6[经济管理—产业经济] F249.2