社会长期护理保险对中老年家庭财务脆弱性的影响效应分析  

An Analysis of the Effects of Social Long-Term Care Insurance on the Financial Vulnerability of Middle-Aged and Elderly Households

作　　者：闫勇 荆涛 Yan Yong;Jing Tao(University of International Business and Economics,Beijing 100029,China)

机构地区：[1]对外经济贸易大学保险学院,北京100029

出　　处：《江西财经大学学报》2025年第2期57-72,共16页Journal of Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目“低生育率背景下长期护理保险政策促进人口生育效应的内在机制与政策优化”(24YJA840005)。

摘　　要：基于中国养老与健康追踪调查2011—2020年面板数据,采用多期双重差分模型评估社会长期护理保险对中老年家庭财务脆弱风险的影响效果。研究发现,社会长期护理保险能够对中老年家庭财务脆弱性起到显著改善作用,可使中老年家庭发生财务脆弱性的概率降低2.6%;社会长期护理保险对中老年家庭财务脆弱性的影响存在地区、健康状况和收入水平异质性;社会长期护理保险能够通过减轻医疗负担、增加家庭劳动参与率和提高生活期望水平三个途径来有效缓解中老年家庭财务脆弱性。基于此,建议在前期试点的基础上,进一步扩大社会长期护理保险的覆盖范围,在推动“家庭参与+社会保障”服务模式的同时,提升家庭成员风险管理意识,逐步构建适应社会进步和各方经济承受能力的保险机制。Based on the panel data from the China Elderly Care a nd Health Tracking Survey from 2011 to 2020,this paper adopts a multi period double difference model to evaluate the impact of social long-term care insurance on the financial vulnerability risk of middle-aged and elderly households.The findings show that social long-term care insurance can significantly improve the financial vulnerability of middle-aged and elderly families,reducing the probability of financial vulnerability of those families by 2.6%.The impact of social long-term care insurance on the financial vulnerability of middle-aged and elderly families varies by region,health status,and income level.Social long-term care insurance can effectively alleviate the financial vulnerability of middle-aged and elderly families through three ways:reducing medical burden,increasing family labor participation rate,and improving living expectations.Based on this,it is suggested to further expand the coverage of social long-term care insurance on the basis of the pilot projects in the early stage.While promoting the“family participation+social security”service model,it is also necessary to enhance the risk management awareness of the family members and gradually build an insurance mechanism that adapts to social progress and the economic affordability of all parties.

关 键 词：社会长期护理保险 家庭财务脆弱性 医疗负担 劳动参与率 

分 类 号：F840[经济管理—保险]