洪涝灾害随机攻击情形下重庆市水路运输网络韧性评估方法研究  

Resilience assessment of waterway transportation network in Chongqing under random attack of flood disasters

作　　者：蒋军[1] 程璐 杨琛 尹泓 李火梅 付晓娜 JIANG Jun;CHENG Lu;YANG Chen;YIN Hong;LI Huo-mei;FU Xiao-na(College of Traffic&Transportation,Chongqing Jiaotong University,Chongqing 400074,China;Chongqing Dazu District Transportation Commission,Chongqing 402360,China)

机构地区：[1]重庆交通大学交通运输学院,重庆400074 [2]重庆市大足区交通运输委员会,重庆402360

出　　处：《中国港湾建设》2025年第4期21-27,共7页China Harbour Engineering

基　　金：重庆市教育委员会人文社科项目(23SKGH141);重庆市自然科学基金面上项目(2024NSCQ-MSX1475);重庆市研究生联合培养基地(JDLHPYJD2022002)。

摘　　要：为降低随机攻击事件对水路运输体系的影响,以重庆市水路运输网络为例,分析其在面临以洪涝灾害为代表的随机攻击时的韧性表现。采用Space L方法构建重庆水路运输系统的复杂网络模型,在两阶段仿真模型的基础上用HEC-RAS模型模拟洪水进行仿真,从结构韧性和功能韧性两方面进行韧性评估,揭示网络在不同程度故障下的性能下降速率及最低韧性水平。然后用基于边的中介中心性的目标恢复策略,分析重庆水路运输网络恢复阶段的韧性变化。结果表明:1)故障吸收阶段网络在面对中等程度的随机攻击时,韧性受到显著影响。2)恢复阶段在目标恢复策略下的网络韧性值随恢复比例增加而加速提升,特别是在恢复进入后期时,效率和效果更加显著。In order to reduce the impact of random attacks on the waterway transportation system,the waterway transportation network in Chongqing was taken as an example to analyze its resilience when faced with random attacks represented by flood disasters.The complex network model of Chongqing忆s waterway transportation system was constructed using the Space L method.Based on a two-stage simulation model,the HEC-RAS model was used to simulate the flood,and the resilience was evaluated from the aspects of structural resilience and functional toughness,revealing the performance degradation rate and the minimum resilience level of the network under different degrees of failure.Then,the edge-based intermediary centrality target recovery strategy is used to analyze the resilience changes of Chongqing忆s waterway transportation network in the recovery stage.The results show that:1)In the fault absorption stage,the resilience of the network is significantly affected in the face of moderate random attacks.2)In the recovery stage,the network resilience value under the target recovery strategy increases with the increase of the recovery ratio,especially in the later recovery stage,and the efficiency and effect are more significant.

关 键 词：水路运输 复杂网络 随机情景 韧性测度 

分 类 号：U695.3[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]