民航客机冲偏出跑道事件诱因关联规则挖掘  

Mining of Association Rules for Inducing Factors of Civil Airliner Runway Excursion Events

作　　者：赵赶超 田庭 闫东峰 马姗 ZHAO Gan-chao;TIAN Ting;YAN Dong-feng;MA Shan(Civil Aviation Flight University of China,Guanghan Sichuan 618307,China)

机构地区：[1]中国民用航空飞行学院,四川广汉618307

出　　处：《计算机仿真》2025年第3期90-95,465,共7页Computer Simulation

基　　金：国家自然科学基金民航联合基金重点项目(U2133209);国家自然科学基金项目(52206063);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(ZJ2023-013);四川省科技计划资助项目(2023NSFSC1183)。

摘　　要：随着技术与制度的不断进步,我国民航事故的复杂性也在不断增大,特别是在飞行关键阶段容易产生的冲/偏出跑道事件更是占事故发生的一大分支。为了研究民航冲/偏出跑道事件的原因,在通过模型迭代费用实验和响应速度对比之后,拟采用FP-Growth算法挖掘的方式,针对1992-2022年近三十年间官方发布的326起冲/偏出跑道事件进行关联性分析,为预防此类事件的发生提供参考性建议。结果表明当飞行员经过连续任务时,有40%的概率在中等道面发生事故;当在夜晚时,有34%的概率在高原机场发生事故;当在八月份时,有33%的概率在雨天发生事故等关联规则。With the continuous improvement of technology and system,the complexity of China's civil aviation accidents is also increasing,especially in the critical stage of flight,easy to rush/deviate from the runway incident,which accounts for a large branch of the accident.In order to study the causes of civil aviation rushing/deviating from the runway incident,after the model iteration cost experiment and the comparison of response speed,it is proposed to use the FP-Growth algorithm mining method to analyze the correlation of the officially released runway/deflection runway events in the past three decades from 1992 to 2022,so as to provide reference suggestions for preventing the occurrence of such incidents.The results show that when the pilot passes through continuous tasks,there is a 40% probability of an accident on the medium surface;When it is at night,there is a 34% probability of an accident at Highland Airport;When in August,there is a 33% probability of accidents on rainy days and other association rules.

关 键 词：冲偏出跑道事件 数据挖掘 关联规则 

分 类 号：V328.2[航空宇航科学与技术—人机与环境工程]