高压电缆火灾风险建模研究  

Research on fire risk modeling of high voltage power cables

作　　者：付涵 艾永恒 仇龙 涂京 刘志雄[2] FU Han;AI Yongheng;QIU Long;TU Jing;LIU Zhixiong(State Grid Wuhan Power Supply Company,Wuhan 430014,China;School of Electrical Engineering and Automation,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,China)

机构地区：[1]国网武汉供电公司,湖北武汉430014 [2]武汉大学电气与自动化学院,湖北武汉430072

出　　处：《武汉大学学报(工学版)》2025年第4期627-634,共8页Engineering Journal of Wuhan University

基　　金：国网湖北省电力有限公司科技项目(5215A0230007)。

摘　　要：随着城网中高压电缆使用量的日益增多,人们对供电部门保障电缆安全运行和事故预防的能力提出了更高要求。为提高电缆火灾预警能力,提出一种综合考虑电缆现行运行数据与历史健康状况的火灾风险隐患评价分析方法。在分析电缆内因火灾引燃机理的基础上,建立高压电缆火灾风险隐患评价集,并选取电缆运行状态参数、历史健康状况及电缆敷设方式构建电缆火灾风险隐患评价指标。依据相应运行规程构建评价指标的劣化度函数,并运用岭形分布函数作为分析火灾风险隐患等级的隶属函数,进而建立高压电缆火灾风险评价模型。以某220 kV高压电缆发生火灾前的数据验证模型的可行性。分析表明,所构建的模型可为运维人员分析电缆火灾风险隐患提供参考。The increasing use of high-voltage power cables in urban power grid has put forward higher demands for the power supply departments to ensure the safe operation of cables and the ability of accident prevention.In order to improve the early warning capability of cable fires,this paper proposes a comprehensive evaluation and analysis method for fire risk and hidden danger,which not only takes into account the current operating data of cables,but also combines the historical health status of cables.Firstly,based on the analysis of the ignition mechanism of cable endogenous fire,the evaluation set of high voltage power cable fire risk and hidden danger is established,and the cable operation state parameters,historical health status and cable laying method are selected to construct the evaluation indices of cable fire risk and hidden danger.Secondly,the degradation degree function of evaluation index is constructed according to the corresponding operation regulations,and the ridge-shaped distribution function is used as the membership function to analyze the hidden danger level of fire risk.Finally,a comprehensive evaluation model of fire risk for high voltage power cables is established,and the feasibility of the model is verified with the data before and after the fire of a 220 kV high voltage power cable.The analysis shows that the constructed model can provide reference for operation and maintenance personnel to analyze the hidden risks of cable fire.

关 键 词：高压电缆 运行参数 健康指数 火灾风险 建模 

分 类 号：TM247[一般工业技术—材料科学与工程]