黄土高原典型流域雨洪过程定量关系构建与相似性判别  

Quantitative relationship construction and similarity discrimination of rainfall and flood processes in typical watersheds of the Loess Plateau

作　　者：高俊杰 谢康[2,3] 王国庆 白世明 杨娜[1] 刘翠善 GAO Junjie;XIE Kang;WANG Guoqing;BAI Shiming;YANG Na;LIU Cuishan(School of Hydrology and Water Resources,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044,China;Research Center for Climate Change of Ministry of Water Resources,Nanjing 210029,China;Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute,Nanjing 210029,China;Yangtze Institute for Conservation and Development,Nanjing 210098,China;Ordos ShengYuan Water Group Co.,Ltd.,Ordos 017200,China)

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学水文与水资源工程学院,江苏南京210044 [2]水利部应对气候变化研究中心,江苏南京210029 [3]南京水利科学研究院,江苏南京210029 [4]长江保护与绿色发展研究院,江苏南京210098 [5]鄂尔多斯市圣圆水务集团有限责任公司,内蒙古鄂尔多斯017200

出　　处：《水利水运工程学报》2025年第2期12-23,共12页Hydro-Science and Engineering

基　　金：内蒙古自治区“揭榜挂帅”项目(2023JBGS0007);国家自然科学基金项目(U2243228,52409035);南京水利科学研究院基本科研业务费青年基金项目(Y524005);江苏省基础研究专项资金项目(BK20240284)。

摘　　要：基于降雨与洪水特征指标,依据1996—2023年黄土高原典型流域窟野河转龙湾站的径流数据和降水数据,利用主成分分析和K均值聚类方法对雨洪过程进行相似性判别,采用不同回归方法构建雨洪定量关系,量化分析了3种类型洪水与降雨特征指标的相关性。研究结果表明,短历时单峰型洪水以多元线性回归效果最优,长历时高孤峰型洪水和小流量多峰型洪水采用逐步回归拟合结果较好。本文结论进一步揭示了黄土高原典型流域的雨洪特性,可为雨洪资源高效利用、旱涝灾害等极端事件的防治提供参考。Based on rainfall and flood characteristic indicators,this study utilizes runoff and precipitation data from the Zhuanglongwan Station of the Kuye River in the Loess Plateau from 1996 to 2023.It employs principal component analysis and K-means clustering to assess the similarity of rainfall-runoff processes and applies various regression methods to establish quantitative relationships.The study quantitatively analyzes the correlation between three types of floods and their characteristic indicators.The results indicate that for short-duration single-peak floods,multiple linear regression provides the best fit.For long-duration high-peaked floods and small-flow multi-peak floods,stepwise regression yields better fitting results.The conclusions enhance the understanding of rainfall-runoff characteristics in the Yellow River Basin and provide a reference for the efficient utilization of water resources and the prevention and control of droughts and floods.

关 键 词：相似性判别 雨洪关系 多元线性回归 逐步回归 

分 类 号：TV122[水利工程—水文学及水资源]