2010-2023年陕西省渭南市肾综合征出血热流行特征及发病趋势预测  

Epidemiological characteristics and trend prediction of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Weinan City, Shaanxi Province from 2010 to 2023

作　　者：李丹丹 刘玮[1] 马宁[1] 景彩梅 程琳 刘刚[1] 党真 余鹏博[2] 党林[1] Li Dandan;Liu Wei;Ma Ning;Jing Caimei;Cheng Lin;Liu Gang;Dang Zhen;Yu Pengbo;Dang Lin(Department for Infectious Disease Control and Prevention,Weinan Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Weinan 714000,China;Institute for Viral Disease Control and Prevention,Shaanxi Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Xi'an 710054,China)

机构地区：[1]渭南市疾病预防控制中心传染病预防控制科,渭南714000 [2]陕西省疾病预防控制中心病毒病预防控制所,西安710054

出　　处：《中华地方病学杂志》2025年第3期209-214,共6页Chinese Journal of Endemiology

基　　金：陕西省疾病预防控制重大课题(2014A7)。

摘　　要：目的了解陕西省渭南市肾综合征出血热(hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome,HFRS)流行特征,探讨季节性自回归综合移动平均(seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average,SARIMA)模型的预测效果。方法收集2010年1月至2024年8月中国疾病预防控制信息系统报告的渭南市HFRS病例的相关信息,以及渭南市辖区HFRS临床诊断、确诊病例的个案流行病学调查资料,应用描述性流行病学方法分析HFRS流行特征。同时,根据2010—2023年HFRS逐月发病率构建SARIMA模型,利用2024年1—8月发病率检验模拟预测效果,并使用最优模型预测2024年9—12月HFRS发病率。结果2010—2023年渭南市共报告HFRS病例4373例,年均发病率为6.39/10万;发病率呈周期性波动变化趋势,分别在2012年(10.25/10万)和2021年(12.26/10万)达到2个发病高峰。发病呈季节性双峰型分布,以秋冬季(10月至次年1月)高峰为主,占67.83%(2966/4373),春夏季(5—7月)高峰占17.27%(755/4373)。渭南市各县(市、区)均有HFRS病例报告,年均发病率前3位依次为华州区(17.84/10万)、临渭区(16.10/10万)和华阴市(9.15/10万)。发病年龄主要集中在15~59岁年龄组,占68.31%(2987/4373);男女性别比为2.96∶1.00(3268∶1105);职业以农民为主,占82.07%(3589/4373)。SARIMA(1,0,1)(2,1,1)12模型为短期预测渭南市HFRS发病率的最优模型,残差序列为白噪声(Q=7.45,P=0.878),模型可以用于疾病预测。应用该模型预测2024年9—12月HFRS发病率,各月份预测值分别为0.17/10万、0.59/10万、1.85/10万、1.61/10万。结论渭南市HFRS流行范围广,发病有明显季节性,人群以男性、青壮年、农民为主。构建的SARIMA(1,0,1)(2,1,1)12模型可用于渭南市HFRS短期发病趋势预测。Objective To investigate the epidemiological characteristics of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome(HFRS)in Weinan City,Shaanxi Province,and study the predictive effect of the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average(SARIMA)model.Methods Relevant information on HFRS cases reported by the China Disease Prevention and Control Information System from January 2010 to August 2024 in Weinan City,as well as the epidemiological investigation data on clinical diagnosis and confirmed HFRS cases in Weinan City were collected.Epidemiological characteristics of HFRS were analyzed by descriptive epidemiological methods.At the same time,a SARIMA model was constructed based on the monthly incidence of HFRS from 2010 to 2023,the incidence of HFRS from January to August 2024 was used to test the simulation prediction effect,and the optimal model was used to predict the incidence of HFRS from September to December 2024.Results A total of 4373 HFRS cases were reported in Weinan City from 2010 to 2023,with an average annual incidence of 6.39/100000.The incidence rate showed a cyclical fluctuation trend,reaching two peaks in 2012(10.25/100000)and 2021(12.26/100000),respectively.The incidence of HFRS presented a seasonal bimodal distribution,with the peak predominantly in autumn and winter(from October to January of the following year),accounting for 67.83%(2966/4373),and the peak in spring and summer(form May to July)accounting for 17.27%(755/4373).HFRS cases were reported in all counties(cities and districts)of Weinan City,and the top 3 annual incidence rates were Huazhou District(17.84/100000),Linwei District(16.10/100000)and Huayin City(9.15/100000).The age of onset was mainly concentrated in the age group of 15-59 years old,accounting for 68.31%(2987/4373).The male to female ratio was 2.96∶1.00(3268∶1105).The main occupation was farmers,accounting for 82.07%(3589/4373).SARIMA(1,0,1)(2,1,1)12 model was the optimal model for short-term prediction of HFRS incidence rate in Weinan City,and the residual difference was li

关 键 词：肾综合征出血热 流行特征 季节性自回归综合移动平均模型 预测 

分 类 号：R512.8[医药卫生—内科学]