模糊集组态视角下游客漂流安全事故的致因、类型及理论模型研究  

The Causality,Types and Theoretical Model of Tourist Rafting Safety Accidents:A Fuzzy-Set Configuration Perspective

作　　者：黄佳杰 赵亚楠 胡洪基 郭英之[1] Huang Jiajie;Zhao Yanan;Hu Hongji;Guo Yingzhi(The Department of Tourism,Fudan University,Shanghai 200433,China)

机构地区：[1]复旦大学旅游学系,上海200433

出　　处：《旅游论坛》2025年第4期69-83,共15页Tourism Forum

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“旅游目的地社区参与机制与区域差异研究”(72074053)资助。

摘　　要：漂流运动作为深受游客喜爱的旅游项目,在日趋流行的同时安全事故却频频发生。对漂流安全事故的致因和类型进行分析,有助于加深对漂流事故发生机制的理解,能够为旅游安全管理提供指导,也有助于切实加强对漂流游客的安全保护。文章通过对205起漂流事故案例的梳理,运用模糊集定性比较分析事故致因和类型,得出以下结论:漂流安全事故的8项致因中,游客不安全行为、河道安全隐患和管理失职,是漂流事故的主要致因,对漂流事故的发生扮演主导角色;当地人不安全行为、漂流设备安全隐患、随身装备安全隐患、恶劣天气以及救援不力,属于漂流事故的一般致因,会协同引致事故的发生。在组态视角下,共有15条路径可能引致漂流安全事故的发生,能有效解释超过75%的漂流事故。文章将漂流事故分为5种类型,分别为游客致因型、游客河道双致因型、河道致因型、河道管理双致因型以及管理致因型。其中,河道致因型是最为常见的事故类型,并具有场景多元性、伤害直接性、表现多样性以及结果严重性等特征。基于事故致因所建构的漂流旅游安全事故理论模型,可被运用于相关问题的分析,并为漂流运动相关的旅游行业提供管理启示。提升游客漂流活动的安全性,需要多方的共同努力,可从当地政府、漂流游客和景区管理方等方面入手,采取综合措施。Rafting,as a popular tourist activity,has seen frequent safety accidents despite its growing popularity.Analyzing the causes and types of rafting safety accidents can deepen the understanding of the mechanisms behind such accidents,provide guidance for tourism safety management and contribute to the protection of tourists’safety.Based on an analysis of 205 rafting accidents,this study employs fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis(fsQCA)to explore the causes and types of rafting safety accidents.Eight causal conditions were identified:tourist unsafe behavior,native unsafe behavior,rafting equipment safety hazard,personal equipment safety hazard,bad weather,river safety hazard,managerial negligence and inadequate rescue.Among these,tourist unsafe behavior,river safety hazard,management negligence are the primary causal conditions for rafting accidents,while native unsafe behavior,rafting equipment safety hazard,accompanied equipment safety hazard,bad weather and inadequate rescue are the ordinary causal conditions often acting synergistically to trigger accident.From a configurational analysis perspective,15 causal paths are identified that can explain over 75%accident cases efficiently.The study categorizes rafting accidents into 5 types:tourist-caused,tourist and river dual-cause,river-caused,river and management dual-cause,and management-caused.Among these,river-caused accidents are the most common type,characterized by diverse scenarios,direct injuries,varied manifestations,and severe consequences.The theoretical model of rafting tourism safety accidents can be applied to analyze related issues and provide management insights for the rafting tourism industry.To enhance the safety of tourist rafting activities,a joint effort is needed from various stakeholders,including tourists,site managers,and safety systems,through the implementation of comprehensive measures.

关 键 词：漂流运动 旅游安全 事故致因 事故类型 定性比较分析 

分 类 号：F590[经济管理—旅游管理]