2025年全国荔枝生产形势分析与管理建议  

Analysis of China's Litchi Production in 2025 and Management Recommendations

作　　者：胡桂兵[1] 杨胜男[1] 齐文娥[1] HU Guibing;YANG Shengnan;QI Wen’e(National Litchi and Longan Industry Technology Research and Development Center/South China Agricultural University,Guangzhou 510642,Guangdong)

机构地区：[1]国家荔枝龙眼产业技术研发中心/华南农业大学,广东广州510642

出　　处：《中国热带农业》2025年第2期8-16,共9页China Tropical Agriculture

基　　金：财政部农业农村部国家现代农业技术体系建设项目基金(CARS-32)。

摘　　要：据2025年3月中旬的调查,全国荔枝面积约751.72万亩,基于成花情况预测2025年全国荔枝总产量约365.04万t,同比增长111.26%,创历史新高。主产区广东(206.26万t,同比增加135.34%)和广西(114.51万t,同比增加175.20%)增产显著,海南(18.40万t,同比增加5.14%)、福建(13.26万t,同比增加12.56%)小幅增长,云南基本持平(7.73万t),四川(4.88万t,同比减少24.13%)减产。全国主栽品种平均成花率超87.00%,早熟品种‘妃子笑’等(成花率约90.00%)、中晚熟‘桂味’‘糯米糍’等(成花率约88.50%)及新品种‘仙进奉’等(成花率约87.40%)成花良好,奠定丰产基础。海南特早熟品种3月底上市,云南特晚熟品种9月上市,全国体系试验站覆盖区域成熟期主峰集中于6月(167.52万t,同比增加195.40%),早、中、晚熟比例为28.87∶59.97∶11.16。广东产区产量占全国总产量56%,粤西产区(102.74万t)为主力,‘桂味’‘糯米糍’等品种产量同比增幅超400%;广西新品种推广成效突出,‘仙进奉’同比增产531.76%。全国荔枝产业呈现“总量跃升、结构优化、区域分化”态势,需统筹生产与市场调控实现稳产增效。According to a survey conducted in mid-March 2025,the litchi cultivation area in China was approximately 7.5172 million mu.Based on flowering conditions,it is predicted that the total litchi production in 2025 will be 3.6504 million tons,representing a significant year-on-year increase of 111.26%and setting a historic record.The main production areas,Guangdong(2.0626 million tons,up by 135.34%year-on-year)and Guangxi(1.1451 million tons,up by 175.20%year-on-year),experienced significant growth,while Hainan(184,000 tons,up by 5.14%year-on-year)and Fujian(132,600 tons,up by 12.56%year-on-year)saw modest increases.Yunnan remained stable at 77,300 tons,whereas Sichuan recorded a decline,with production decreasing to 48,800 tons(down by 24.13%year-on-year).The nationwide average flowering rate of major litchi cultivars exceeded 87.00%.Early-maturing varieties such as'Feizixiao'(90.00%),mid-to-late-maturing varieties like'Guiwei'and'Nuomici'(88.50%),and newly introduced cultivars such as'Xianjinfeng'(87.40%)exhibited robust flowering,laying a solid foundation for high yields.Ultra-early-maturing varieties in Hainan will reach the market by the end of March,while ultra-late-maturing varieties in Yunnan will extend the season into September.The peak harvest period across national trial stations is concentrated in June,with a total production of 1.6752 million tons,representing a year-on-year increase of 195.40%.The proportion of early,mid-,and late-maturing varieties is 28.87:59.97:11.16.Guangdong contributes 56%of national litchi output,with western Guangdong(1.0274 million tons)as the primary production region,where varieties such as'Guiwei'and'Nuomici'have increased by over 400%year-on-year.Guangxi has achieved remarkable success in promoting new cultivars,such as'Xianjinfeng'production rising by 531.76%year-on-year.The national litchi industry is exhibiting a trend of'total output surge,structural optimization,and regional differentiation',highlighting the need for coordinated production and market regulation to ensu

关 键 词：荔枝 产量与产期预测 产销管理 

分 类 号：F326.13[经济管理—产业经济]