烟台市土地利用与碳储量的时空变化及预测  

Study on the spatial and temporal changes and prediction of land use and carbon storage in Yantai

作　　者：张俊峰 ZHANG Junfeng(Shandong Jianzhu University,Yantai 265500,China)

机构地区：[1]山东建筑大学,山东烟台265500

出　　处：《四川林业科技》2025年第2期97-103,共7页Journal of Sichuan Forestry Science and Technology

摘　　要：土地利用变化是碳储量的直接影响因素,碳储量的变化会直接影响到城市气候、社会经济以及生态系统的服务功能。因此合理的土地利用规划和管理对于维持和增加碳储量有着重要的战略意义。以烟台市为例,选取3期土地利用数据,利用GIS等软件分析土地利用变化特征,运用FLUS-InVEST耦合模型分析烟台市2035年的土地利用变化以及碳储量的分布规律。结果表明:2000—2020年间烟台市耕地、草地和其他用地持续减少,林地、水域和建设用地持续增加,碳储量持续减少,总体减少18.01×10^(6)t,耕地是碳储量减少的主要用地类型。不同的情景模拟对比下,生态保护情景下的林地、草地得到增加,耕地、建设用地、其他用地减少,其他用地的利用程度降低。生态保护情景与自然演变情景下碳储量均有所减少,分别减少了10.06×10^(6)t和11.37×10^(6)t,两种情景下的碳储量发展区别不大。Land use change is a direct factor affecting carbon storage,and the change of carbon storage will directly affect urban climate,social economy and ecosystem service function.Therefore,reasonable land use planning and management has important strategic significance for maintaining and increasing carbon storage.Taking Yantai as an example,three periods of land use data were selected,and GIS and other software were used to analyze the characteristics of land use change.The FLUS-InVEST coupling model was used to analyze the land use change and carbon storage distribution in Yantai in 2035 under the scenario of natural evolution protection.The results showed that from 2000 to 2020,the cultivated land,grassland and other land use types in Yantai continued to decrease,the forest land,water area and construction land continued to increase,and the carbon storage continued to decrease,with an overall decrease of 18.01×10^(6) t.Cultivated land was the main land type with reduced carbon storage.Under different scenarios,the forest land and grassland increased under the ecological protection scenario,the cultivated land,construction land and other land reduced,and the utilization degree of other land reduced.In the ecological protection scenario and the natural evolution scenario,the carbon storage decreased by 10.06×10^(6) t and 11.37×10^(6) t,respectively,and there was little difference in the development of carbon storage in the two scenarios.

关 键 词：碳储量 土地利用 InVEST模型 FLUS模型 烟台市 

分 类 号：F301.2[经济管理—产业经济]