21世纪祁连山季风与西风区典型冰川变化模拟与预估  

Simulation and projection of typical glacier changes in monsoon and westerly regions of Qilian Mountains in the 21st century

作　　者：李朝纲 段克勤 石培宏 王琼 陈逸青 姜佳佳 LI Chaogang;DUAN Keqin;SHI Peihong;WANG Qiong;CHEN Yiqing;JIANG Jiajia(School of Geography and Tourism,Shaanxi Normal University,Xi’an 710119,China)

机构地区：[1]陕西师范大学地理科学与旅游学院,陕西西安710119

出　　处：《冰川冻土》2025年第2期330-341,共12页Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology

基　　金：第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究项目(2019QZKK0201);国家自然科学基金项目(41571062);中国博士后基金项目“祁连山七一冰川的模拟与预测”(NO.2017M610622);陕西省自然科学基金面上项目(NO.2023-JC-YB-259)资助。

摘　　要：祁连山山地冰川的变化不仅是气候变化的直接反映,也对淡水资源有重要的影响。近年来祁连山冰川处于退缩失稳状态,为深入理解21世纪祁连山冰川对气候变化的响应方式及变化幅度,选取受西风带影响强烈的七一冰川与受季风影响较大的冷龙岭2号冰川为例,通过分析遥感影像以及数值模拟,发现两条冰川在1990—2022年面积分别减小10.28%和19.04%。为探讨两条冰川未来的变化,利用CMIP6模式数据驱动考虑冰川流动的OGGM模型,结果表明在高排放情景下(SSP5-8.5),到21世纪80年代,七一冰川地区气温将比1990—2015年升高4.1℃,届时冰川将完全消亡。而祁连山东段气温升高更快,预估冷龙岭2号冰川将在2075年左右完全消亡。即使在最理想的碳排放情景下(SSP1-2.6),祁连山地区气温到2050年比1990—2015年预估升高1.0℃,将导致两条冰川至2080年时退缩成冰斗,届时七一冰川面积和体积只有2020年的22%和8%,而冷龙岭2号冰川则仅为17%和6%,由此导致两条冰川的径流到本世纪末将分别减少28.98%和41.82%。因此,不论在哪个气候情景下,祁连山冰川在21世纪都将大幅度退缩,甚至消失,由此造成的环境和水资源问题,需提前规划应对。The changes in Qilian Mountain glaciers are not only a direct reflection of climate change,but also has an important impact on fresh water resources.In recent years,the glaciers in Qilian Mountain have been in a state of retreat and instability,to deeply understand the response of the glaciers in the Qilian Mountain to climate change in the 21st century and the magnitude of the change,clarify the characteristics of the Qilian Mountain gla⁃ciers change,the process and the reasons,and further predict the trend and magnitude of glacier change,and an⁃alyze the Qilian Mountain glaciers destabilization and imbalance in the climate warming background of the mech⁃anism,we selected the Qiyi Glacier,which is strongly influenced by the westerllies,and the Lenglongling No.2 Glacier,which is strongly influenced by the monsoon as examples by analyzing remote sensing images and nu⁃merical simulation,it is found that the two glaciers show obvious retreat at the end of the glacier in 1990 to 2022,with the area reduced by 10.28%and 19.04%respectively,and the retreat rate of Lenglongling No.2 Glacier is obviously larger than that of Qiyi Glacier,which is attributed to the fact that the eastern part of the Qil⁃ian Mountain is warmer than the western part,and the eastern part of the glacier has decreased in precipitation.To explore the future changes of the two glaciers,the OGGM model considering glacier flow was driven by CMIP6 model data.The relative errors were within 2.5%by comparing the glacier area of the two glaciers simu⁃lated by the model and the visually interpreted area from 2008 to 2022.The simulated values of the mass balance of the Qiyi Glacier were more in line with the observed values,with an average difference of 88 mm w.e.Be⁃tween the two mass balances,the difference between the two is 88 mm w.e.,which indicates that the OGGM model can simulate the glacier changes better.The simulation results show that under the high-emission scenario(SSP5-8.5),the area and volume of the Qiyi Glacier will decrease by

关 键 词：祁连山 气候变化 冰川变化 OGGM模型 

分 类 号：P343.6[天文地球—水文科学]