生产环节机械化可以抑制耕地非粮化吗?  

Can the mechanisation of the production process limit nongrain cultivated land?

作　　者：刘健[1] 姚志 LIU Jian;YAO Zhi(Economics and Management School of Yangtze University,Jingzhou 434023,China)

机构地区：[1]长江大学经济与管理学院,湖北荆州434023

出　　处：《土地经济研究》2024年第2期18-45,共28页Journal of Land Economics

基　　金：农业农村部“十五五”规划前期研究项目“完善农村承包地‘三权’分置理论体系研究”(编号:05240076);2022年度长江大学校社科基金重点项目“进城落户农民耕地利用效率、延包方案与产权细化研究”(编号:2022csz01);延安大学乡村发展研究院产学研合作项目“中国农村撂荒地再利用效果评价与提升路径”(编号:RDI2024003)。

摘　　要：厘清农业生产环节机械化对耕地非粮化的影响,是实现耕地资源高效利用、夯实国家粮食安全的重要举措。本文基于2010—2022年30个省份的面板数据,运用固定效应模型、GMM模型估计了种植综合环节、机收环节、机播环节与耕地非粮化的因果关系,并采用门槛模型实证检验了机耕环节对耕地非粮化的影响。结果表明:(1)综合机械化率、机播率和机收率与耕地非粮化呈现倒U形关系,机耕率对耕地非粮化的影响存在双门槛效应,使用工具变量后结果仍然稳健。这表明在农业机械化发展初期,生产者倾向于种植非粮食作物。随着机械化水平的提高和环节分工程度加深,粮食种植将成为规模化农户的最佳选择。(2)区域异质性分析表明,各环节机械化对东中西部地区耕地非粮化有抑制作用,东部机械化水平高,中西部在农机推广初期易出现非粮化现象。在农业强国建设背景下,要充分发挥不同生产环节、时期、地域机械作业对耕地非粮化的抑制作用,推进农业生产环节机械化,进而促进耕地资源高效利用,夯实人口大国的粮食安全。It is an important measure to realize efficient utilization of farmland resources and consolidate national food security to clarify the impact of mechanization of agricultural production links on nongrain cultivation.Based on the panel data of 30 provinces from 2010 to 2022,this paper uses fixedeffect model and GMM model to estimate the causal relationship between planting integration link,machine harvesting link,machine sowing link and farmland decarburization,and uses threshold model to empirically test the influence of machine cultivation link on farmland decarburization.The results showed that:(1)there is an inverted Ushaped relationship between integrated mechanical rate,machine sowing rate and machine yield rate,respectively,and the effect of machine cultivation link on farmland decarburization has a double threshold effect,and the results are still stable after the use of instrumental variables.This indicates that in the early stage of agricultural mechanization,producers tend to plant nonfood crops,but with the improvement of mechanization level and deepening of division of labour,food crops will become the best choice for largescale farmers.(2)The analysis of regional heterogeneity showed that the degree of influence of the level of mechanisation of linkages on nonfood crops varied from large to small in the central,eastern and western regions.Under the background of building an agricultural power,it is necessary to give full play to the inhibiting effect of mechanical operations in different production links,periods and regions on the nongrain cultivation of cultivated land,so as to promote the mechanization of agricultural production links,promote the efficient utilization of cultivated land resources and consolidate the food security of a populous country.

关 键 词：农业强国 农地种植结构 耕地非粮化 农业机械化 倒U形关系 门槛效应 

分 类 号：F323.3[经济管理—产业经济]