基于模糊集定性比较的农村乱占耕地建房驱动机制分析  

Driving mechanisms of illegal construction on farmland in rural China based on Fuzzy-Set Qualitative Comparative Analysis

作　　者：屠晓 魏西云 强婷婷 陈婕 陈宜颢 钟太洋[1] TU Xiao;WEI Xiyun;QIANG Tingting;CHEN Jie;CHEN Yihao;ZHONG Taiyang(School of Geography and Ocean Science,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210023,China;China Land Surveying and Planning Institute,Beiing 100035,China)

机构地区：[1]南京大学地理与海洋科学学院,江苏南京210023 [2]中国国土勘测规划院,北京100035

出　　处：《土地经济研究》2024年第2期198-217,共20页Journal of Land Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“面向环境安全的绿色经济理论探索与实践:中国和白俄罗斯耕地利用视角的比较分析”(42261144750)。

摘　　要：辨析农村乱占耕地建房的成因及驱动机制,并从政策匹配与创新方面提出治理农村乱占耕地建房的政策建议具有重要意义。本文通过收集梳理2020年7月至2022年6月自然资源部通报的476起乱占耕地建房典型案例中31个涉案省级行政区累计被通报次数,采用模糊集定性比较分析法、案例分析法和归纳总结法分析乱占耕地建房现象的驱动机制。结果表明:(1)476起农村乱占耕地建房案例涉及住宅类、产业类和公共管理服务类,产业类乱占耕地建房频次最高,个人和企业是主要违法主体;(2)各组态的一致性普遍高于单个前因条件的一致性,农村乱占耕地建房受多因素协同驱动,驱动路径主要有四条,其中路径二“经济机会驱动产业用地扩张型”的原始覆盖度最高,达到38%;(3)前因条件“农村户数”在四种组态中均作为核心条件出现,非高农村人均住房面积在单变量必要性检验中的一致性最高,客观居住需求仍需予以落实。农村乱占耕地建房主要受农村户数、住房供给现状面积、平均受教育年限、农村产业发展水平和乡村治理水平多因素协同影响,可归纳为新增住房需求保障不足驱动型、经济机会驱动产业用地扩张型、土地资源错配驱动型、现实依赖与认知缺失型四种驱动机制组态。针对农村乱占耕地建房问题的治理,应当提质求效、疏堵结合、开源节流,构建长效治理机制,完善监督监管和整改复耕环节。It is of great significance to analyse the causes and driving mechanism of housing construction on unauthorised farmland in rural areas,and to make policy recommendations from the perspective of policy adjustment and innovation.From July 2020 to June 2022,statistics were compiled on the cumulative time of 476 typical cases of unauthorsed 0ccupation of farmland for housing construction reported by the Ministry of Natural Resources for the 31 provincial administrative regions involved.Fuzzy-Set Qualitative Comparative Analysis,case study analysis and inductive summarisation methods were used to analyse the driving mechanisms.The results show that:(1)476 cases of ilgal construction over farmland involve residential,industrial and public administrative services,the frequency of the industrial category is the highest,and individuals and enterprises are the main ilegal subjects.(2)The consistency of each group condition is generally higher than the individual antecedent conditions.It can be categorised into four types of driving mechanisms,with path 2,industrial land expansion driven by economic opportunities,having the highest initial coverage,reaching 38%。(3)The antecedent condition"number of rural households"appears as a core condition in all four types of driving mechanisms,non-high rural housing space per capita has the highest consistency in the univariate necessity test,and the guarantee of reasonable rural housing demand is still insufficient.In conclusion,it is mainly influr enced by the synergistic effects of multiple factors,including the size of rural households,housing space per capita,aver-age years of schooling,the structure of agricultural production,the speed of dewelopment of rural industries,and the level of rural governance.These can be summarized into four groups:increasing housing needs inadequate security,industrial land expansion driven by economic opportunities,driven by land resource mismatch,and driven by farmland dependence.To address the issue of ilgal construction on farmland in rural ar

关 键 词：乱占耕地建房 非农化 乡村住宅 耕地保护 模糊集定性比较分析 

分 类 号：F301.2[经济管理—产业经济]