粮食安全观下我国大食物经济统计数据的时序演化特征  

Evolution Characteristics of China’s Big Food Concept Economic Statistics Data Under the Perspective of Food Security

作　　者：吴大放[1] 王泉焱 贾帅帅[3] WU Dafang;WANG Quanyan;JIA Shuaishuai(School of Geography and Remote Sensing,Guangzhou University,Guangzhou 510006,China;School of Economics and Statistics,Guangzhou University,Guangzhou 510006;School of Finance,Guangzhou University,Guangzhou 510405,China)

机构地区：[1]广州大学地理科学与遥感学院,广东广州510006 [2]广州大学经济与统计学院,广东广州510006 [3]广州大学金融研究院,广东广州510405

出　　处：《广东农业科学》2025年第2期149-164,共16页Guangdong Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目(24BTJ045);国家社会科学基金重大项目(23&ZD119);广东省哲学社会科学规划项目(GD24XYJ24);广东省普通高校创新团队项目(人文社科)(2023WCXTD019)。

摘　　要：民以食为天,食物消费是最基础的消费需求,食物安全是国家安全的重要构成,该文以经济统计学的视角分析我国食物安全保障格局的动态演变特征。自1993年以来的30年间,粮食在三大类农产品(粮食、蔬菜和水果)产量结构中的比重由53.83%下降至37.55%,同期畜牧业肉类生产和渔业水产品生产增速均大幅高于粮食生产,我国居民食物消费结构、粮食消费结构均发生根本变化。当前,饲料粮消费占比已经超过口粮消费占比,我国粮食安全形势已经发生根本性逆转。传统窄口径的粮食安全观念已经不适应管理需要,贯彻大食物观是更好应对粮食安全挑战的可行性方案。该文从生产、消费与贸易角度分析我国大食物经济统计数据的演化特征,对转变粮食安全理念的理论渊源与现实背景进行探讨,以期为贯彻大食物观和有效应对粮食安全挑战探索可行方案。该文依托农业及其相关产业统计以及居民消费支出调查的食物统计介绍大食物经济统计的数据框架,基于农业、畜牧业、渔业分别开展食物生产结构统计与变动趋势分析,基于食物供给平衡表开展主粮供求变动趋势分析。结果表明我国农业生产结构发生显著变化,粮食生产在三大类农产品中所占比例有所下降;粮食在居民食物消费结构中的比重下降,畜牧业与渔业生产快速发展,饲料粮消费占比提升,饲料粮供应安全成为维护我国粮食安全的主要矛盾;我国大豆供应严重依赖进口,对畜牧业与渔业健康发展造成潜在威胁,对粮食安全形成较大风险。基于此,认为积极贯彻大食物观是有效应对当前粮食安全挑战的有效方案,可通过秸秆养畜、发展牧草产业、发展林下经济种植饲草和养殖禽畜、建设海上牧场和发展海洋渔业等方式降低饲料粮需求;也可通过发展设施农业、生物农业和食用菌产业等方式构建多元化食物供给体Food is of paramount importance to the people,and food consumption is the most basic consumption demand.Food safety is an important component of national security.This article analyzes the dynamic evolution characteristics of China's food security security pattern from the perspective of economic statistics.In just 30 years since 1993,the proportion of grain in the production structure of the three major categories of agricultural products(grain,vegetables,and fruits)has decreased from 53.83%to 37.55%.During the same period,the growth rate of animal husbandry meat production and fishery aquatic product production has also been significantly higher than that of grain production.The food consumption structure and grain consumption structure of Chinese residents have undergone fundamental changes.Currently,the proportion of feed grain consumption has exceeded that of food consumption,and China's food security situation has undergone a fundamental reversal.The traditional narrow caliber concept of food security is no longer suitable for management needs,and implementing the big food concept is a feasible solution to better address the challenges of food security.This article analyzes the evolutionary characteristics of China's food economy statistics from the perspectives of production,consumption,and trade,explores the theoretical origins and practical background of transforming the concept of food security,and explores feasible solutions for implementing the concept of big food security and effectively addressing food security challenges.Based on agricultural and related industry statistics,as well as household consumption expenditure surveys,food statistics introduce the data framework of big food economy statistics.Based on agriculture,animal husbandry,and fisheries,food production structure statistics and trend analysis are carried out separately.Based on the food supply balance table,trend analysis of changes in the supply and demand of staple foods is conducted.Research has found that China's agricultural prod

关 键 词：大食物观 粮食安全 经济统计 粮食消费结构 食物生产结构 海上牧场 

分 类 号：S3[农业科学—农艺学] F3[经济管理—产业经济]