汉江上游干旱恢复期间气象-水文干旱特征响应概率研究  

Study on Response Probability of Meteorological and Hydrological Drought Characteristics during Drought Recovery Period in Upper Hanjiang River

作　　者：朱芳 王海煜 杨少康 薄会娟 ZHU Fang;WANG Haiyu;YANG Shaokang;BO Huijuan(Yichang Hubei Hydrology and Water Resources Survey Bureau,Yichang 443002,China;Engineering Research Center of Eco-Environment in Three Gorges Reservoir Region,Ministry of Education,Yichang 443002,China;College of Hydraulic&Environmental Engineering,China Three Gorges University,Yichang 443002,China;Xiantao River Embankment Administration,Xiantao 433000,China;Department of Hydraulic Engineering,Hubei Water Resources Technical College,Wuhan 430070,China)

机构地区：[1]湖北省宜昌市水文水资源勘测局,湖北宜昌443002 [2]三峡库区生态环境教育部工程研究中心,湖北宜昌443002 [3]三峡大学水利与环境学院,湖北宜昌443002 [4]仙桃市河道堤防管理局,湖北仙桃433000 [5]湖北水利水电职业技术学院水利工程系,湖北武汉430070

出　　处：《人民珠江》2025年第4期55-64,共10页Pearl River

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(52009065、52109058)。

摘　　要：探究干旱恢复期的气象-水文干旱特征响应规律,对干旱恢复及水资源管理具有重要的参考意义。选用标准化降水蒸散发指数(Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index,SPEI)、标准化径流指数(Standardized Runoff Index,SRI)分别表征1961—2019年汉江上游流域气象、水文干旱,首先利用Pearson相关系数法计算气象-水文干旱响应时间,采用时间重叠法对气象、水文干旱事件进行匹配,进一步得出干旱恢复期气象-水文干旱特征,最后建立基于Copula函数耦合贝叶斯网络的气象-水文干旱恢复响应概率模型,探究干旱恢复期气象-水文干旱特征之间的联系。结果表明:①在6—11月期间,流域水文干旱对气象干旱的响应时间最短,仅为2个月,1月份的响应时间最长,达到了8个月,4、5、12月份的响应时间大约为5个月左右;②干旱恢复期气象、水文干旱历时的响应概率最优边缘分布均为LogL分布,烈度则分别为Kernel和LogL分布,且历时和烈度的最优联合分布函数均为Gumbel Copula函数;③随着气象干旱恢复特征值的增加,水文干旱恢复特征的响应概率也随之增加,如,当气象干旱恢复历时分别大于2、3、4、5、6个月的时候,水文干旱恢复历时大于4个月水文干旱的概率分别为34.8%、38.5%、42.8%、47.0%、50.7%。同时,水文干旱恢复特征的响应概率变化速率随着气象干旱恢复特征的增大而加快。研究成果可为深入理解汉江上游干旱恢复机制及干旱防治预警提供重要参考。It is of great reference significance for drought recovery and water resources management to explore the response rules of meteorological and hydrological drought characteristics during the drought recovery period.In this study,standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI)and standardized runoff index(SRI)were used to characterize meteorological and hydrological drought in the upper Hanjiang River basin from 1961 to 2019,respectively.First,the Pearson correlation coefficient method was used to calculate the response time of meteorological and hydrological drought,and the time overlap method was used to match meteorological and hydrological drought events.Furthermore,the characteristics of meteorological and hydrological drought during the drought recovery period were obtained.Finally,a probability model of meteorological and hydrological drought recovery responses based on the Copula function coupled with Bayesian network was established to explore the relationship between meteorological and hydrological drought characteristics during the drought recovery period.The results show that:①from June to November,the response time of hydrological drought to meteorological drought in the basin is the shortest,which is only two months.The response time of January is the longest,which is eight months.The response time of April,May,and December is about five months.②The optimal marginal distributions for the response probabilities of meteorological and hydrological drought durations during the drought recovery period were LogL distributions,while the optimal distributions for the intensities of meteorological and hydrological droughts were Kernel and LogL distributions.Furthermore,the optimal joint distribution functions for both duration and intensity were the Gumbel Copula function.③With the increase in characteristic value of meteorological drought recovery,the response probability of hydrological drought recovery characteristic also increases.For example,when the meteorological drought recovery lasts m

关 键 词：气象干旱 水文干旱 干旱恢复 COPULA函数 贝叶斯网络 汉江上游 

分 类 号：TV121[水利工程—水文学及水资源]