基于耦合协调度模型的十大孔兑流域水-能源-粮食-生态耦合系统协调及驱动机制  

Coordination and Driving Mechanism of Water-Energy-Food-Ecology Coupling System in Inner-Mongolia Reaches of Yellow River Based on Coupling Coordination Degree Model

作　　者：檀汉泽 张泽中 冯凯 罗旭东 周泉成 刘勇 张德全 TAN Hanze;ZHANG Zezhong;FENG Kai;LUO Xudong;ZHOU Quancheng;LIU Yong;ZHANG Dequan(School of Water Conservancy,North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power,Zhengzhou 450046,China;Yinshanbeilu Grassland Eco-Hydrology National Observation and Research Station,China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038,China;Ordos Development Center of Water Conservancy,Ordos 017001,China)

机构地区：[1]华北水利水电大学水利学院,河南郑州450046 [2]中国水利水电科学研究院阴山北麓草原生态水文国家观测研究站,北京100038 [3]鄂尔多斯市水利事业发展中心,内蒙古鄂尔多斯017001

出　　处：《人民珠江》2025年第4期101-112,共12页Pearl River

基　　金：科技兴蒙行动重点专项(2022EEDSKJXM004-4);国家自然科学基金(42301024);河南省科技攻关项目(242102321114)。

摘　　要：为实现十大孔兑流域资源的高质量与可持续发展,以达拉特旗及其乡镇为研究对象,构建水-能源-粮食-生态(W-E-F-E)耦合协调评价指标体系,运用耦合协调度模型从时间和空间层面基于W-E-F-E系统耦合视角开展系统协调性研究,并分别运用灰色关联度模型和地理探测器探究其驱动机制。结果表明:①达拉特旗地区W-EF-E系统综合评价指数总体上呈现缓慢上升趋势,从2000年的0.356上升至2022年的0.575;②达拉特旗及其各乡镇地区W-E-F-E系统耦合度较高,处于高水平耦合阶段(均值为0.967),但耦合协调度较低,处于初级协调阶段(均值为0.668),达拉特旗地区存在空间发展不平衡与不协调现象,主要存在于达拉特旗东部,协调度较高的地区从西部逐渐向中部变化;③达拉特旗各乡镇W-E-F-E系统的协调性总体上呈现向好态势,地区整体正逐步向良好协调阶段发展,各乡镇已基本步入中级协调阶段;④总体上驱动因素对系统耦合协调度的影响程度如下:生态>水资源>能源>粮食;在空间分异影响方面,能源影响最大,而水资源的解释力最小,水资源与粮食、生态两因子交互时解释力最大。研究成果可为十大孔兑流域资源高效利用与生境保护提供决策依据。In order to realize the high quality and sustainable development of the Inner-Mongolia Reaches of Yellow River,this paper took Dalad Banner and its townships as research objects and constructed a water-energy-food-ecology(W-E-F-E)coupling coordination evaluation index system.The coupling coordination degree model was used to carry out system coordination research based on the W-E-F-E system coupling from the temporal and spatial perspectives,and the gray correlation model and the geographic detector were used to explore the driving mechanisms.The results show that:①The comprehensive evaluation index of the W-E-F-E system in the Dalad Banner region generally shows a slow upward trend,from 0.356 in 2000 to 0.575 in 2022.②The coupling degree of the W-E-F-E system in Dalad Banner and its townships is high,and it is in the stage of high-level coupling(The mean value is 0.967).However,the coupling coordination degree is low and maintains at the primary coordination stage(The mean value is 0.668).Unbalanced and uncoordinated spatial development exists in the Dalad Banner region,mainly in the eastern part of Dalad Banner,and areas with a higher coordination degree gradually change from the west to the center.③The coordination of the W-E-F-E system of Dalad Banner and its townships shows a good trend on the whole,and the whole region is gradually developing into a good coordination stage.The townships have basically entered the intermediate coordination stage.④In general,the influence degree of driving factors on the system coupling coordination degree is as follows:ecology>water>energy>food.In terms of spatial differences,energy has the greatest impact,while water has the least explanatory power.The interaction among water,food,and ecology yields the greatest explanatory power.The results can provide a basis for decision-making on the efficient utilization of resources and habitat protection in the Inner-Mongolia Reaches of Yellow River.

关 键 词：水资源-能源-粮食-生态(W-E-F-E)系统 耦合协调 驱动机制 时空演变 

分 类 号：TV21[水利工程—水文学及水资源]