容量电价机制下区域电煤交易价格合理区间测算研究  

Research on reasonable range calculation of regional power coal transaction price under capacity price mechanism

作　　者：苑曙光 张俊杰 杨城 王雨琪 刘海英 YUAN Shuguang;ZHANG Junjie;YANG Cheng;WANG Yuqi;LIU Haiying(School of Economics and Management,Inner Mongolia University of Technology,Hohhot 010051,China;Inner Mongolia Energy Strategy Research Center,Hohhot 010051,China;Ordos Institute of technology,Ordos 017000,China)

机构地区：[1]内蒙古工业大学经济管理学院,内蒙古呼和浩特010051 [2]内蒙古能源战略研究中心,内蒙古呼和浩特010051 [3]鄂尔多斯应用技术学院,内蒙古鄂尔多斯017000

出　　处：《煤炭经济研究》2025年第3期17-24,共8页Coal Economic Research

基　　金：内蒙古社科基金资助项目(2024EY35);内蒙古工业大学博士启动金资助项目(BS2021041);内蒙古自治区社会科学基金2024年度常规项目(2024EY12)。

摘　　要：区域电煤交易价格合理区间的形成对煤电上下游协调高质量发展具有重要意义。为科学测度区域电煤交易价格合理区间,基于单位煤电生产成本与收益的视角,结合煤电机组利用水平、两部制电价机制及行业合理收益率等关键因素,构建区域电煤合理基准价格模型,并据此测算各地区电煤合理价格区间。研究表明,各区域合理价格区间与当地煤电交易基准价之间存在正向关联;多数省份的合理价格区间与秦皇岛港下水煤价格区间相近,而晋陕蒙地区的价格区间上限较低,此类地区煤电企业面临一定亏损风险。晋陕蒙地区合理价格区间均低于秦皇岛港下水煤(5500 kcal)中长期交易价格合理区间,表明重点地区的煤电企业拥有较强的电价弹性优势。The establishment of a reasonable price range for regional thermal coal trading is crucial for the coordinated and high-quality development of the coal and electricity sectors.To scientifically measure this price range,we have developed a regional thermal coal benchmark price model that incorporates key factors such as coal-fired power plant utilization levels,two-part electricity pricing mechanisms,and industry reasonable return rates.Based on this model,we have calculated the reasonable price ranges for thermal coal in various regions.Our research indicates a positive correlation between the reasonable price ranges in each region and the local coal-fired power trading benchmark prices.In most provinces,the reasonable price ranges are similar to those of Qinhuangdao Port's delivered coal prices.However,in the Shanxi,Shaanxi,and Inner Mongolia regions,the upper limits of the price ranges are lower,suggesting that coal-fired power enterprises in these areas face certain risks of loss.Specifically,the reasonable price ranges in these regions are below the mid-to-long-term trading price ranges for Qinhuangdao Port's delivered coal(5500 kcal),indicating that coal-fired power enterprises in these key regions have a stronger advantage in electricity price elasticity.

关 键 词：电煤 交易价格 容量电价机制 合理区间 基准价格 测度 

分 类 号：F416.21[经济管理—产业经济]