基于结构分解法的中国工业用电量分析及预测  

Analysis and forecasting of China′s industrial electricity consumption based on the structural decomposition method

作　　者：裴丽伟 张海静 潘广旭 郑钰 江源 杜生辉 张祖福 PEI Liwei;ZHANG Haijing;PAN Guangxu;ZHENG Yu;JIANG Yuan;DU Shenghui;ZHANG Zufu(State Grid Rizhao Power Supply Company,Rizhao 276800,China;State Grid Shandong Electric Power Company Marketing Service Center(Measurement Center),Jinan 250000,China)

机构地区：[1]国网山东省电力公司日照供电公司,山东日照276800 [2]国网山东营销服务中心(计量中心),山东济南250000

出　　处：《煤炭经济研究》2025年第3期181-188,共8页Coal Economic Research

基　　金：国网山东省电力公司科技项目(520617230008)。

摘　　要：我国经济高速增长和工业化、城市化水平提高导致电力需求激增,需要准确预测用电量以便合理调配电力资源,避免供求失衡和电力短缺。利用基于投入产出分析的结构分解模型分析了中国工业用电量的变化。将2017—2022年中国工业用电量的变化分解为4个因素:用电强度、技术投入结构、最终需求结构和最终需求总量。结果表明,最终需求总量的变化对中国工业用电量的增长贡献最大,增加了20913.4亿kW·h的用电量。准确的电力预测在电力生产、供应和电力调度中发挥着重要作用,为此,基于系统动力学构建中国工业电力消耗预测模型,将对高耗能行业的节能降耗方面起到积极作用。China′s rapid economic growth and increased levels of industrialization and urbanization have led to a surge in electricity demand,and accurate forecasts of electricity consumption are needed in order to rationally deploy power resources and avoid supply-demand imbalances and power shortages.This paper analyzes the changes in China′s industrial electricity consumption using a structural decomposition model based on input-output analysis.The changes in China′s industrial electricity consumption from 2017 to 2022 are decomposed into four factors:electricity intensity,technology input structure,final demand structure and total final demand.The results show that the change in total final demand contributes the most to the growth of China′s industrial electricity consumption,increasing electricity consumption by 20913.4 billion kW·h.Accurate power forecasting plays an important role in power production,supply and power dispatching,for this reason,this paper constructs a forecasting model for China′s industrial power consumption based on system dynamics,which will play a positive role in energy saving and consumption reduction aspects of energy-consuming industries.

关 键 词：投入产出 结构分解法 工业用电量 电力消耗预测模型 

分 类 号：F416.21[经济管理—产业经济]