基于宏观交通流能耗的路段交通风险传播模型  

Road section traffic risk propagation model based on macroscopic traffic flow energy consumption

作　　者：范文波 王喆 徐婷 姜山 刘昕 宋现敏[3,1] FAN Wen-bo;WANG Zhe;XU Ting;JIANG Shan;LIU Xin;SONG Xian-min(Big Data and Network Management Center,Jilin University,Changchun 130012,China;Changchun Urban Planning&Research Center,Changchun 130000,China;College of Transportation,Jilin University,Changchun 130012,China)

机构地区：[1]吉林大学大数据和网络管理中心,长春130012 [2]长春市规划编制研究中心,长春130000 [3]吉林大学交通学院,长春130012

出　　处：《吉林大学学报(工学版)》2025年第2期546-553,共8页Journal of Jilin University:Engineering and Technology Edition

基　　金：国家自然基金重点项目(52131202)。

摘　　要：交通风险是道路交通事故的重要来源,事故发生后对道路上事故风险的传播进行有效的预测对预防二次事故的发生具有重要的意义,因此本文建立基于宏观交通流能耗的路段事故风险传播模型。首先,分析了事故后的车道占用及车辆换道现象对交通流的影响,据此构建事故后风险作用下的宏观交通流模型;其次,结合交通流能量耗散的定义,将整体车辆的运动抽象为流体运动过程,提出了事故后风险作用下的交通流能耗模型,以此来量化事故风险;最后,根据风险传播的时空相关性,提出了风险影响范围和持续时间计算模型,描述风险的传播过程。为验证本文提出的风险传播模型的有效性,利用MATLAB和VISSIM对不同初始交通流密度下的交通流运行情况分别进行了数值模拟与仿真验证,实验结果表明:事故发生时的路段初始密度越大,风险的影响范围越广,持续时间越长;本文模型的预测偏差率绝对值在8%以下,具有良好的预测效果。Traffic risk is an important source of road traffic accidents, and effective prediction of roadaccident risk propagation after an accident is of great significance to prevent the occurrence of secondaryaccidents. Therefore, this paper establishes a road accident risk propagation model based on macroscopictraffic flow energy consumption. Firstly, the influence of lane occupancy and lane change on traffic flowafter accident is analyzed, and then a macro-traffic flow model is constructed under the effect of post-accident risk. Secondly, combined with the definition of traffic flow energy dissipation, the whole vehiclemovement is abstracted as fluid movement process, and the traffic flow energy consumption model underthe action of post-accident risk is proposed to quantify the accident risk. Finally, according to the temporaland spatial correlation of risk transmission, a calculation model of risk influence range and duration isproposed to describe the process of risk transmission. In order to verify the effectiveness of the riskpropagation model proposed in this paper, numerical simulation and simulation verification of traffic flowoperation under different initial traffic flow densities were carried out using MATLAB and VISSIMrespectively. The experimental results show that: the greater the initial density of the road section when theaccident occurs, the wider the impact range of the risk and the longer the duration. The absolute value ofthe prediction deviation rate of this model is less than 8%, which has good prediction effect.

关 键 词：交通运输 交通事故 宏观交通流 交通流能耗 风险传播 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]