内蒙古大兴安岭地区碳储量时空特征及多情景预测分析  

Spatiotemporal characteristics of carbon storage in Da Hinggan Mountains,Inner Mongolia and multi scenario prediction

作　　者：庞立东 庞萬隆 刘国栋 PANG Lidong;PANG Wanlong;LIU Guodong(College of Resource and Environmental Economics,Inner Mongolia University of Finance and Economics,Hohhot O10010;College of Forestry,Inner Mongolia Agricultural University,Hohhot O10010;Chifeng Disaster Prevention and Relief Center,Chifeng 024000,China)

机构地区：[1]内蒙古财经大学资源与环境经济学院,呼和浩特010010 [2]内蒙古农业大学林学院,呼和浩特010010 [3]赤峰市防灾救灾中心,赤峰024000

出　　处：《干旱区资源与环境》2025年第4期110-120,共11页Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment

基　　金：内蒙古自治区高等学校青年科技英才发展项目(NJYT23024);内蒙古财经大学自治区“五大任务”研究专项课题(NCXWD2458);内蒙古农村牧区治理能力现代化研究基地课题(NCZLJD202403)资助。

摘　　要：内蒙古大兴安岭地区是我国重要的碳汇和碳储存基地,评估该地区土地利用及碳储量变化趋势对于实现“双碳”目标具有重要意义。文中基于1992-2022年四期土地利用/覆被数据,利用InVEST模型评估了该地区碳储量的时空变化特征,并采用PLUS模型预测了在生态保护、自然增长和耕地保护三种情景下,2022-2050年土地利用及碳储量变化。研究表明:1)草地、天然林、人工林和耕地为主要土地利用类型,合计占总面积98%。1992-2022年间,建设用地增长最快,草地减少13556.02km^(2),主要转化为耕地和人工林。2)在2022-2050年,自然增长情景下,耕地、人工林、建设用地和天然林面积分别增加3684.14km^(2)、2906.18km^(2)、2328.22km^(2)和1218.78km^(2);生态保护情景下,草地减少趋势得到有效控制,建设用地增速低于自然增长情景;耕地保护情景下,耕地和建设用地的扩展概率增大。3)碳储量方面,2022-2050年,自然增长情景下碳储量增加28.82×10^(6)Mg,耕地保护情景下增加32.06×10^(6)Mg,生态保护情景下增加32.08×10^(6)Mg,天然林碳储量增长占主导,贡献率达84%。因此,未来应限制林地、草地和水域的转出,促进耕地和未利用地向草地和林地转移,以提升碳储能力。The Da Hinggan Mountains,Inner Mongolia is an important carbon sink and carbon storage base in China.Assessing the current land use and carbon storage situation in this region and scientifically predicting future trends are essential for optimizing land use structure and achieving the"dual carbon"goals.Based on four periods of land use/land cover data from 1992 to 2022,this study uses the InVEST model to assess the spatial-temporal variations of carbon storage in the region.Additionally,the PLUS model is applied to predict the trends in land use and carbon storage from 2022 to 2050 under three scenarios:ecological protection,natural growth,and cultivated land protection.The results indicate:1)Grasslands,natural forests,artificial forests,and cultivated land are the main land use types in the Da Hinggan Mountains,accounting for 98%of the total area.From 1992 to 2022,the area of built-up land grew the fastest,expanding to 227.54%of its original size,while grassland area decreased by 13,556.02km^(2),primarily converted to cultivated land and artificial forests.2)From 2022 to 2050,under the natural growth scenario,the areas of cultivated land,artificial forests,built-up land,and natural forests will increase by 3,684.14km^(2),2,906.18km^(2),2,328.22km^(2),and 1,218.78km^(2),respectively.In the ecological protection scenario,the decrease in grassland area will be significantly controlled,and the growth rate of built-up land will be lower than in the natural growth and cultivated land protection scenarios.In the cultivated land protection scenario,the probability of conversion from other land types to cultivated land and built-up land will increase.3)From 2022 to 2050,carbon storage will increase by 28.82×10^(6)Mg under the natural growth scenario,32.06×10^(6)Mg under the cultivated land protection scenario,and 32.08×10^(6)Mg under the ecological protection scenario.Among them,natural forests will contribute 26.95×10^(6)Mg,accounting for 84.0%of the total increase in carbon storage.Future development should limit t

关 键 词：土地利用变化 碳储量 InVEST模型 多情景预测 大兴安岭地区 

分 类 号：F061.6[经济管理—政治经济学] F124.5