乌昌地区土地利用碳储量估算及多情景预测  

Estimation and multi-scenario prediction of carbon storage in land uses in the Urumqi-Changji area

作　　者：杨红霞 何浩[1] 韩东爽 杨华存 YANG Hongxia;HE Hao;HAN Dongshuang;YANG Huacun(School of Civil Engineering and Architecture,Xinjiang University,Urumqi 830046,China)

机构地区：[1]新疆大学建筑工程学院,乌鲁木齐830046

出　　处：《干旱区资源与环境》2025年第4期121-131,共11页Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment

基　　金：新疆大学博士科研启动基金项目(202109120012)资助。

摘　　要：土地利用变化对区域陆地生态系统碳储量的影响在全球气候变化背景下至关重要,特别是对维持区域碳平衡和推动可持续发展具有深远意义。文中以乌昌地区(新疆天山核心经济带)为研究案例,探讨了2000-2020年间土地利用变化对碳储量的影响,并预测了2030年不同发展情景下的碳储量变化。研究结合PLUS模型与InVEST模型,综合考虑气候、环境、社会经济等多种驱动因子,模拟了自然发展、耕地保护、城市扩张和生态保护四种情景下的土地利用格局和碳储量分布。研究结果显示:1)2000-2020年,乌昌地区土地利用结构显著变化,未利用地增多,草地减少,其他地类动态变化。2)在研究期间,草地大面积转出,面积减少1961.96km^(2),降幅13.61%,建设用地增加306.64km^(2),耕地、林地、水域面积并无显著性变化。3)相比2020年,2030年四种情景下碳储量普遍下降,除生态保护情景外,尤其是城市扩张情景下碳储量减少最为显著。快速的城镇化进程和随之增加的建设用地是导致碳储量下降的关键因素。4)耕地保护情景下碳储量降幅最小,为2.82×10^(6)t,生态保护情景优化了土地利用结构,提升了城市生态系统的碳汇能力,碳储量增加5.06×10^(5)t。研究为乌昌地区土地利用规划和碳储量管理提供了科学依据。Exploring the impact of land use changes on regional terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage is critical for maintaining regional carbon balance.This study comprehensively analyzed the effects of land use changes on carbon storage in the Urumqi-Changji(Wuchang)region from 2000 to 2020 and predicted the changes in carbon storage under different development scenarios for 2030.Using the PLUS and InVEST models,combined with 19 climate,environmental,socio-economic,and accessibility driving factors,the study simulated land use patterns and carbon storage distributions under four scenarios:natural development,farmland protection,urban expansion,and ecological protection.The results showed that:1)From 2000 to 2020,land use structure in the Wuchang region changed significantly,with an increase in unused land and a decrease in grassland,along with dynamic changes in other land types.2)During this period,grassland experienced a substantial reduction of 1,961.96km^(2)(-13.61%),while construction land increased by 306.64km^(2).Farmland,forest,and water areas showed no significant changes.3)By 2030,carbon storage is projected to decrease under all scenarios.Except the ecological protection scenario,the most significant reduction in carbon storage exhibits in the urban expansion scenario,highlighting a rapid urbanization and the associated increase in construction land as key factors driving carbon storage loss.4)The smallest decline in carbon storage appears in farmland protection scenario(-2.82×10^(6)t),while in the ecological protection scenario,improved land use structure will enhance carbon sequestration capacity and increase carbon storage by 5.06×10^(5)t.This study provides a scientific basis for land use planning and carbon storage management in the Wuchang region.

关 键 词：土地利用变化 碳储量 PLUS模型 InVEST模型 情景模拟 

分 类 号：F124.5[经济管理—世界经济]