祁连山大通河流域白桦种群结构与动态特征  

Population structure and dynamic characteristics of Betula platyphylla in the Datong River Basin of Qilian Mountains

作　　者：葛静茹 张荣霞 张金峰 GE Jingru;ZHANG Rongxia;ZHANG Jinfeng(College of Humanities and Social Sciences,Beijing Institute of Petrochemical Technology,Beijing 102600;College of Life Sciences,Qinghai Normal University,Xining 810016;Key Laboratory of Biodiversity Formation Mechanism and Comprehensive Utilization of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau in Qinghai Province,Xining 810004;Qinghai South of Qilian Mountain Forest Ecosystem Observation and Research Station,Huzhu 810500,China)

机构地区：[1]北京石油化工学院人文社科学院,北京102600 [2]青海师范大学生命科学学院,西宁810016 [3]青海省青藏高原生物多样性形成机制与综合利用重点实验室,西宁810004 [4]青海祁连山南坡森林生态系统国家定位观测研究站,互助810500

出　　处：《干旱区资源与环境》2025年第4期156-164,共9页Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家林业和草原局软科学项目(2024131024,2024131027)资助。

摘　　要：文中以祁连山大通河流域白桦种群为研究对象,采用种群静态生命表、存活曲线、数量变化动态指数,结合生存分析与时间序列预测法,分析种群生长规律,阐明种群动态趋势,为该种群保护及流域植被恢复提供科学依据。结果表明:1)白桦种群个体数随龄级增大总体呈现从中龄(Ⅳ-Ⅵ)、成龄(Ⅶ-Ⅸ)向幼龄(Ⅰ-Ⅲ)、老龄(Ⅹ-Ⅻ)递减趋势。其中,成龄个体数最多,占43.92%,表明白桦种群处于成龄林阶段。2)种群存活曲线接近Deevey-Ⅲ型B_(1)亚型,表明各龄级的存活数差别较大,且幼龄个体死亡率高。3)生存函数显示,白桦种群前期锐减、中期稳定、后期衰退。4)时间序列预测分析表明,在未来种群发展中,幼龄个体数量基本不变,中、成龄逐渐减少,老龄逐渐增多。综合以上各项研究结果可知,祁连山大通河流域白桦种群维持依赖中、成龄个体,幼龄个体少导致种群难以维持,最终会被更高级的群落取代。To provide a basis for protecting the Betula platyphylla population and the vegetation restoration in the Datong River Basin,Qilian Mountains,we analyze the growth patterns and the dynamic trend of Betula platyphylla populations and elucidate their dynamic trends by utilizing population static life tables,survival curves,and dynamic indices of quantity changes,coupled with survival analysis and time series prediction methods.The results show:1)The number of B.platyphylla individuals generally decreases from middle-aged(Ⅳ-Ⅵ),mature-aged(Ⅶ-Ⅸ)to young-aged(Ⅰ-Ⅲ)and old-aged(Ⅹ-Ⅻ)with the increase of age classes.Among them,the mature-aged individuals are the most,accounting for 43.92%of the total,indicating that the B.platyphylla population is in a mature forest stage.2)The survival curve is close to the Deevey-ⅢB_(1) subtype,suggesting that the survival numbers amang age classes are quite different,and the mortality rate of young-aged individuals is high.3)The survival function shows that the B.platyphylla population sharply decreases in the early stage,is stable in the middle stage,and declines in the later stage.4)Time series prediction indicates that in the future population development,the young-aged individuals remain basically unchanged,while those of middle-aged and mature-aged individuals gradually decrease,and the number of old-aged individuals gradually increases.This study reveals that the maintenance of the B.platyphylla population in the Datong River Basin of Qilian Mountains depends on middle-aged and mature-aged individuals.The scarcity of young-aged individuals makes population maintenance difficult and the population will eventually be replaced by more advanced communities.

关 键 词：静态生命表 数量动态 生存函数 时间序列预测 白桦 大通河流域 

分 类 号：S718[农业科学—林学]