基于PLUS-InVEST模型的贵州省武陵山区碳储量时空演变与预测  

Spatio-temporal evolution and prediction of carbon storage in Wuling Mountain area of Guizhou Province based on PLUS-InVEST model

作　　者：罗力兵 王先华[1] 邹序安[1] LUO Li-bing;WANG Xian-hua;ZOU Xu-an(School of Engineering,Tongren Polytechnic College,Tongren 554300,Guizhou,China)

机构地区：[1]铜仁职业技术学院工学院,贵州铜仁554300

出　　处：《湖北农业科学》2025年第4期70-76,89,共8页Hubei Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：2021年度铜仁职业技术学院科研课题(tzky-2021年-ZK02号);铜仁职业技术学院2022年院级科研团队项目(铜仁院办发[2022]188号)。

摘　　要：以贵州省武陵山区为研究区,根据驱动因子、2000—2020年土地利用数据和土地扩张规律,基于PLUS-InVEST模型分别模拟2030年研究区在自然发展情景、耕地保护情景和生态保护情景下土地利用的空间分布格局,并分析2000—2030年碳储量的时空演变特征。结果表明,2000—2020年研究区林地和建设用地面积持续增加,水体面积先减少后增加,耕地、草地和湿地面积持续减少;碳总量先增加后减少。2020—2030年,自然发展情景下研究区碳储量将持续降低,耕地保护和生态保护情景下研究区碳储量有所增加,生态保护情景更加明显。2000—2030年,碳密度总体呈东南高、西北低的空间分布,碳储量充沛地为梵净山自然保护区及周边区域,下降区域主要分布在行政中心附近、交通便利区域、乌江和沅江流域。生态保护情景下的贵州省武陵山区土地利用能综合统筹各地类功能,使研究区碳储量由减少转为增加,对区域国土空间优化和生态修复具有重要意义。Taking the Wuling Mountain area of Guizhou Province as the research area,according to the driving factors,land use data from 2000 to 2020 and the law of land expansion,the spatial distribution pattern of land use in the study area in 2030 under the natural development scenario,cultivated land protection scenario and ecological protection scenario was simulated by the PLUS-InVEST model,and the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of carbon storage from 2000 to 2030 were analyzed.The results showed that,from 2000 to 2020,the area of forest land and construction land in the study area consistently increased,the area of water bodies initially decreased and then increased,and the areas of cultivated land,grassland and wetland continued to decline.The total carbon initially increased and then decreased from 2000 to 2020.From 2020 to 2030,under the natural development scenario,the carbon storage in the study area would continue to decline,while under the cultivated land protection and ecological protection scenarios,the carbon storage would increase,with the ecological protection scenario showing a more significant effect.Overall,from 2000 to 2030,carbon density exhibited a spatial distribution pattern of being higher in the southeast and lower in the northwest.Meanwhile,there was abundant and dense carbon storage centered around the Fanjing Mountain Nature Reserve and its adjacent areas.Declining regions were mainly distributed near administrative centers,areas with convenient transportation,and along the Wujiang River and Yuanjiang River basins in the study area.Under the ecological protection scenario,land use in the Wuling Mountains area of Guizhou Province could strategically integrate various land functions,shifting carbon storage from a decrease to an increase.This was crucial for optimizing regional land space and ecological restoration.

关 键 词：碳储量 PLUS模型 InVEST模型 土地利用 时空演变 贵州省武陵山区 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程] X82