基于Markov预测模型的1989—2037年嘉兴市景观生态格局时空变化特征  

Temporal and spatial variation characteristics of landscape ecological pattern in Jiaxing City from 1989 to 2037 based on Markov prediction model

作　　者：米渊博 徐栋 方贺 MI Yuan-bo;XU Dong;FANG He(School of Architecture&Art,Shijiazhuang Tiedao University,Shijiazhuang 050043,China;Beijing Normal University/State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science,Beijing 100875,China;Zhejiang Climate Center,Hangzhou 310017,China)

机构地区：[1]石家庄铁道大学建筑与艺术学院,石家庄050043 [2]北京师范大学/遥感科学国家重点实验室,北京100875 [3]浙江省气象中心,杭州310017

出　　处：《湖北农业科学》2025年第4期100-107,共8页Hubei Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：浙江省自然科学基金项目(LQ21D060001);风云卫星先行计划项目(FY-APP-2021.0105);浙江省气象科技计划项目(2021YB07,2019QN19);新疆气象局引导性计划项目(YD202224)。

摘　　要：使用嘉兴市1989—2019年的Landsat影像数据,分析嘉兴市土地利用时空动态变化规律,并基于Markov预测模型对嘉兴市未来土地利用格局进行预测,结合城市扩展分析,探究城市扩展规律与土地利用变化之间的联系。结果表明,1989—2019年嘉兴市土地利用类型变化较大,建设用地增加明显,城镇化速率加快,耕地转化为林地、草地的概率增大,表明嘉兴市“退耕还林”政策取得一定成效;研究期内嘉兴市土地利用程度较大,土地利用仍处于发展期,预计到2037年城镇建设用地增长率仍较大,但土地利用结构趋于平稳;1989—2019年嘉兴市城市扩展经历了中速扩张和快速扩张两个阶段,城市分形维数均维持在1.35左右,整体形态结构较为复杂,对土地利用结构干扰较大;1989—2002年、2002—2010年和2010—2019年嘉兴市城市质心分别表现为向东南、西北、东北方向移动,城市圆形率和紧凑度稳定,并逐步形成稳定的“一主六副,三区三带”的城区分布结构。Using the Landsat image data of Jiaxing City from 1989 to 2019,the temporal and spatial dynamic changes of land use in Jiaxing City were analyzed,and the future land use pattern of Jiaxing City was predicted based on the Markov prediction model.Combined with the analysis of urban expansion,the relationship between urban expansion and land use change was explored.The results showed that,from 1989 to 2019,the types of land use in Jiaxing City had changed greatly,the construction land had increased significantly,the rate of urbanization had accelerated,and the probability of cultivated land being converted into forest land and grassland had increased,indicating that the policy of“returning farmland to forest”in Jiaxing City achieved certain results.During the study period,the land use degree of Jiaxing City was relatively large,and the land use was still in the development period.It was expected that the growth rate of urban construction land would still be large by 2037,but the land use structure would be stable.From 1989 to 2019,the urban expansion of Jiaxing City had experienced two stages of medium-speed expansion and rapid expansion.The urban fractal dimension was maintained at about 1.35,and the overall morphological structure was relatively complex,which had a great impact on the land use structure.The city center of Jiaxing had moved to the southeast,northwest and northeast in three periods of 1989 to 2002,2002 to 2010 and 2010 to 2019,respectively.The urban circularity and compactness were stable,and a stable urban distribution structure of“one main district and six subs districts,three zones and three belts”was gradually formed.

关 键 词：景观生态格局 土地利用 城市扩展 遥感监测 Markov预测模型 嘉兴市 

分 类 号：P901[天文地球—自然地理学]