基于监测数据的灰色系统模型在边坡变形预测中的应用研究  

Application of Grey System Model Based on Monitoring Data in Slope Deformation Prediction

作　　者：胡国保 杨潇 朱俊凯 孔庆缘 张星伟 徐南 HU Guobao;YANG Xiao;ZHU Junkai;KONG Qingyuan;ZHANG Xingwei;XU Nan(Qingyuan Construction Engineering Quality Inspection Station Co.,Ltd.,Qingyuan 511500,China;Guangdong Construction Engineering Quality&Safety Testing Head Station Co.,Ltd.,Guangzhou 510500,China)

机构地区：[1]清远市建设工程质量检测站有限公司,广东清远511500 [2]广东省建设工程质量安全检测总站有限公司,广州510500

出　　处：《广东土木与建筑》2025年第4期40-44,共5页Guangdong Architecture Civil Engineering

摘　　要：依托清远市某边坡工程项目,基于边坡沉降监测数据,建立非等距序列的GM(1,1)灰色系统模型预测沉降变形。结合实测沉降变形曲线特征,分别在沉降缓慢变形、快速变形、后期平缓阶段建立基于前7次、前10次监测数据的7维、10维灰色系统模型,对比基于全过程监测数据建立的模型和分阶段建立的模型以及不同维度模型的预测结果发现,GM(1,1)灰色系统模型预测是边坡变形预测的一种可靠方法,对于类似文中监测数据有较明显分阶段变形规律的,分阶段建立模型预测精度更高,分阶段建立模型得到的预测变形曲线图与实测曲线图更相似,特别是在变化规律相对稳定的快速变形阶段,灰色系统理论在变化规律趋于一致的变形预测中更具有优势。此外,10维模型比7维模型精度更高,说明基于越多实测数据建立的模型预测精度越高。Relies on a slope engineering project in Qingyuan City and builds a non-equidistant sequence GM(1,1)gray system model to predict settlement deformation based on slope settlement monitoring data.Combined with the characteristics of measured settlement deformation curves,7-dimensional and 10-dimensional grey system models based on the first 7 and 10 monitoring data were established in the slow deformation,rapid deformation and late gentle stages of settlement,respectively.By comparing the prediction results of the model established based on the whole process monitoring data,the model established in stages and the models of different dimensions,it is found that the GM(1,1)grey system model prediction is a reliable method for slope deformation prediction.For the monitoring data with obvious staged deformation law similar,the prediction accuracy of the model established in stages is higher,and the predicted deformation curve obtained by building a staged model is more similar to the measured curve,especially in the rapid deformation stage where the change pattern is relatively stable.This indicates that grey system theory has more advantages in deformation prediction where the variation pattern tends to be consistent.In addition,the 10-dimensional model has higher accuracy than the 7-dimensional model,indicating that models built on more measured data have higher prediction accuracy.

关 键 词：边坡 变形预测 灰色系统模型 

分 类 号：TU198[建筑科学—建筑理论]