花生价格波动影响因素研究  

Study on Influencing Factors of Peanut Price Fluctuation

作　　者：张长青[1] 由松 Zhang Changqing;You Song(College of Economics and Management,Heilongjiang Bayi Agricultural University,Daqing 163319)

机构地区：[1]黑龙江八一农垦大学经济管理学院,大庆163319

出　　处：《黑龙江八一农垦大学学报》2025年第2期119-126,共8页journal of heilongjiang bayi agricultural university

基　　金：黑龙江省科技厅攻关项目(黑龙江省工业企业自主创新的评价与实施路径研究:GC12D412)。

摘　　要：我国农产品市场发展日益成熟,国内外市场贸易十分活跃,农产品价格波动频繁,在油料作物中花生一直处于一个重要位置,我国的花生产量排名世界第一。为研究花生价格的影响因素,采用主成分分析和线性回归的方法从供需角度选取12个变量,结果表明:花生价格变化是多种因素综合作用的结果,主要影响因素是居民储备收入、大豆价格、稻米价格、稻米产量、食品消费价格、物价等。因此,文中提出的政策建议是平衡供需、提高效率和合理分配花生产业布局。China's agricultural product market has developed rapidly and trade between domestic and foreign markets is very active.Agricultural product prices have experienced frequent fluctuations.Peanut,as an important oilseed crop,ranks the first in production worldwide.To investigate the influencing factors of peanut prices,12 variables were selected from the supply and demand perspective using principal component analysis and linear regression methods.The results indicated that changes in peanut prices were the result of multiple factors,with main influencing factors including residents'reserve income,soybean prices,rice prices,rice production,food consumption prices,and inflation.Based on these findings,this paper proposed policy recommendations aimed at balancing supply and demand,improving efficiency,and distributing the peanut industry in a reasonable manner.

关 键 词：影响因素 价格波动 花生 

分 类 号：F822[经济管理—财政学] O212[理学—概率论与数理统计]