海南省2014—2023年水痘流行病学特征  

Epidemiological characteristics of varicella in Hainan province from 2014 to 2023

作　　者：刘欣雨 何剑[2] 何春娜 李梓菡 黄雅靖[2] 陈碧玉[2] 胡跃华[1] 殷大鹏 LIU Xinyu;HE Jian;HE Chunna;LI Zihan;HUANG Yajing;CHEN Biyu;HU Yuehua;YIN Dapeng(Office of Epidemiology,Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing 102206,China;Hainan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Hainan Provincial Association of Preventive Medicine,Haikou,Hainan 571129,China;School of Public Health,Hainan Medical University,Haikou,Hainan 571199,China)

机构地区：[1]中国疾病预防控制中心流行病学办公室,北京102206 [2]海南省疾病预防控制中心,海南省预防医学科学院,海南海口571129 [3]海南省医科大学公共卫生学院,海南海口571199

出　　处：《中国热带医学》2025年第3期316-322,共7页China Tropical Medicine

基　　金：海南省卫生健康科技创新联合项目(No.WSJK2025MS171);国家疾控局公共卫生人才培养支持项目(No.202412);海南医学院研究生创新科研课题(No.HYYB2023A22)。

摘　　要：目的 分析2014—2023年海南省水痘传染病的流行病学特征,探索海南省水痘流行规律。方法 从中国疾病预防控制信息系统中传染病报告信息管理系统与突发公共卫生事件管理系统下载海南省水痘相关数据,利用描述性流行病学方法对水痘的发病特征进行分析,利用自回归移动平均模型(autoregressive integrated moving average model, ARIMA)模型进行水痘发病趋势预测。结果 海南省2014—2023年累计报告水痘病例65 832例,报告1例死亡病例,年均发病率为66.50/10万,历年发病率为47.31/10万~89.01/10万,隔1年出现1个发病率高峰。水痘发病呈季节性双峰分布,波峰在1月与4月,发病与气温呈负相关(r=-0.349,P<0.05)。0~<15岁儿童是主要发病群体,发病率在5~6岁年龄组达到峰值。学生以及低龄儿童为主要发病人群。男性发病率(68.15/10万)高于女性(62.22/10万),差异有统计学意义(χ^(2)=16.80,P<0.05)。1岁儿童1剂次接种率呈上升趋势,最高达43.2%;4~6岁儿童2剂次接种率逐年上升,最高达9.9%。共报告水痘突发公共卫生事件65起,每起病例数M(P25, P75)为24(18, 32),总罹患率2.64%,小学为主要发生场所。ARIMA模型预测拟合效果较好,结果显示2024年预测发病数较2023年有所增加,在1—6月和10—12月可能会出现发病高峰。结论 海南省2014—2023年水痘发病率较高;较低的儿童水痘疫苗接种率无法打破水痘在健康儿童中的自然流行态势。Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of varicella infectious diseases in Hainan Province from 2014 to 2023,and explore the epidemic patterns of varicella in Hainan Province.Methods Download data related to chickenpox in Hainan Province from the Infectious Disease Reporting Information Management System and the Public Health Emergency Management System of the Chinese Disease Control and Prevention Information System,descriptive epidemiological methods were used to analyze the incidence characteristics of varicella;ARIMA model was used to predict the incidence trend.Results From 2014 to 2023,a total of 65832 cases of varicella and one death case were reported in Hainan,with an average annual incidence rate of 66.50/100000,and the incidence rate fluctuated between 47.31/100000 and 89.01/100000.A incidence rate peak occurred every other year.The incidence of varicella showed a seasonal bimodal distribution,with peaks in January and April.The incidence of varicella was negatively correlated with temperature(r=-0.349,P<0.05).Children aged 0-14 years were the main incidence group,and the incidence rate reached its peak in the age group of 5-6 years.Students and young children were the main groups affected by the disease.The incidence rate of male(68.15/100000)was higher than that of female(62.22/100000)(χ^(2)=16.80,P<0.05).The incidence rate of male(68.15/100000)was higher than that of female(62.22/100000).The 1 dose vaccination rate for 1-year-old children was on the rise,reaching a maximum of 43.2%;The two doses vaccination rate for children aged 4-6 years has been increasing year by year,with the highest reaching 9.9%.A total of 65 cases of varicella PHEE were reported,with M(P25,P75)of 24(18,32)cases per case,and a total incidence rate of 2.64%.Primary schools were the main places of occurrence.The ARIMA model has a good predictive fitting effect,and the results show that the predicted incidence in 2024 will increase compared to 2023. There may be peaks in incidence in January to Juneand October

关 键 词：水痘 流行病学 特征分析 监测 海南 

分 类 号：R511.5[医药卫生—内科学]