基于PLUS-InVEST的山西矿区土地利用变化动态模拟及碳储量评估  

Dynamic Simulation of Land Use Change and Carbon Storage Assessment in Shanxi Mining Areas Based on PLUS-InVEST Model

作　　者：李健 胡晋山 康建荣 舒文杰 王正帅 陈炳乾 LI Jian;HU Jinshan;KANG Jianrong;SHU Wenjie;WANG Zhengshuai;CHEN Bingqian(School of Geography,Geomatics and Planning,Jiangsu Normal University,Xuzhou 221116,China)

机构地区：[1]江苏师范大学地理测绘与城乡规划学院,江苏徐州221116

出　　处：《金属矿山》2025年第4期274-283,共10页Metal Mine

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(编号:41671395,52074133,42374020);江苏省研究生科研与实践创新计划项目(编号:KYCX24_3035)。

摘　　要：煤炭开采会引起土地利用类型显著变化,为推动绿色矿山建设,基于山西省17个煤矿区近20 a 5期土地利用数据,应用PLUS-InVEST模型对该区域20 a土地利用变化及碳储量进行了分析,并设置3种不同情景对该省2030年地类分布及碳储量数据进行了预测。结果表明:(1)土地利用变化是碳储量变化的主要驱动因素,2000—2020年山西省矿区建设用地扩张131.74%,其余地类除林地外面积均持续减少,总碳储量减少1501.33万t;(2)耕地与草地面积在3种情景中均减少,建设用地持续扩张,碳储量呈降低趋势,但生态保护情景下建设用地增长速度减缓,碳储量下降最少,减少238.39万t;(3)耕地、林地与水域转移受年降水量、人口密度与高程影响较大,草地与未利用地转移主要受GDP和人口密度影响,建设用地扩张受交通条件限制。研究表明:山西省建设用地向耕地及草地扩张是其碳储量下降的主要原因,加强生态保护可减缓碳储量下降。Coal mining will cause significant changes in land use types.In order to promote the construction of green mine,based on the land use data of 17 coal mining areas in Shanxi Province in the past 20 years,land use change and carbon storage in 20 years were analyzed by using PLUS-InVEST model.In addition,three differentscenarios were set up to predict the land distribution and carbon storage data in 2030.The results show that:①Land use change is the main driving factor of carbon storage change.From 2000 to 2020,the construction land of mining areas in Shanxi Province expanded by 131.74%,and the area of other land types except forest land continued to decrease,and the total carbon storage decreased by 15.0133 million t.②Cultivated land and grassland area decreased in the three scenarios,construction land continued to expand,and carbon storage showed a downward trend,but in the ecological protection scenario,the growth rate of construction land slowed down,carbon storage decreased the least,by 2383900 t.③The transfer of cultivated land,forest land and water area is greatly affected by annual precipitation,population density and elevation,the transfer of grassland and unused land is mainly affected by GDP and population density,and the expansion of construction land is limited by traffic conditions.The results show that the expansion of construction land to cultivated land and grassland is the main reason for the decline of carbon storage in Shanxi Province,strengthening ecological protection can slow down the decline of carbon storage.

关 键 词：PLUS模型 InVEST模型 土地利用变化 碳储量 

分 类 号：TD88[矿业工程—矿山开采]