特朗普关税2.0对中国经济的影响  

The Impact of Trump 2.0 Tariff Measures on China's Economy

作　　者：臧成伟 苏庆义[1] ZANG Chengwei;SU Qingyi(Institute of World Economics and Politics,CASS,100732)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所,北京市100732

出　　处：《财经智库》2025年第1期5-24,151,152,共22页Financial Minds

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目“美国产业链供应链全球布局调整的机制、趋势与影响研究”(24&ZD056);中国社会科学院重大创新项目“中美经贸重大问题跟踪研究”。

摘　　要：关税战是特朗普政府对外经贸政策的鲜明特点,特朗普第二任期有充分的动机和充足的政策环境保证其实施竞选时提出的关税方案。本文全面梳理特朗普提出的各类关税主张,并通过全球贸易分析模型(GTAP)的一般均衡框架全面模拟了其不同关税措施对中国经济的影响。结果表明,特朗普新一轮加征关税将“损敌八百,自伤一千”,即使在最坏的情景下,中国GDP总量损失1.64%,但美国GDP的损失也会高达1.71%;如果中国采取完全对等的反制措施,虽然会使美国损失扩大,但中国也将面临更大损失;美国如果对所有国家加征关税,那么对中国的不利影响要小于只对中国加征关税,但对美国的不利影响会更大。基于模拟结果,本文认为,为应对特朗普再次加征关税的风险,一方面,我国要研究美国关健要害,实施精准反制,同时联合其他受害国推动多边框架下的反制措施;另一方面,要以谈判的方式限制美国对华关税的幅度和范围,尽量减小对华加征关税的负面影响,以合作的方式实质性地提出解决中美贸易问题的方案,争取正向利益。Donald Trump's use of tariffs as a primary tool in economic policy has been a defining feature of his administration.In his second term,there is sufficient motivation and political environment to implement the tariff measures proposed during his election campaign.This paper summarizes Trump's tariff proposals and simulates their potential impact on China's trade and GDP using the general equilibrium model of the Global Trade Analysis Project(GTAP).The results show that a new round of Trump's tariff policies would lead to a lose-lose scenario.In the worst-case scenario,China could experience a 1.64%decline in its total GDP,while the United States would also face substantial losses.If China retaliates with counter-tariffs,both countries would suffer greater losses,with China's total GDP potentially declining by 2.22%in the worst case.If the U.S.imposes tariffs on all countries rather than exclusively on China,the negative impact on China would be reduced,but the U.S.would face even greater negative impact.

关 键 词：中美经贸关系 关税 特朗普2.0 全球贸易分析模型 

分 类 号：F752.5[经济管理—国际贸易]