特朗普2.0美国贸易政策前瞻与全球供应链重构  

Prospects of U.S.Trade Policy and Reconstruction of Global Supply Chains in the Trump 2.0 Era

作　　者：郝大鹏 倪红福[1,2] HAO Dapeng;NI Hongfu(Institute of Economics,CASS,100836;Faculty of Applied Economics,UCASS,102488)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院经济研究所,北京市100836 [2]中国社会科学院大学应用经济学院,北京市102488

出　　处：《财经智库》2025年第1期25-56,152,153,共34页Financial Minds

基　　金：国家自然科学基金专项项目“中国贸易投资开放发展:基本规律、宏观效应与‘双循环’新发展格局构建”(72141309);中国社会科学院“青启计划”资助项目“完善宏观经济治理体系研究”(2025QQJH48)。

摘　　要：特朗普第一任期以来,美国全球化理念逐渐从基于新自由主义的“华盛顿共识”转向具有显著经济民族主义特征的“新华盛顿共识”,其贸易政策也由“成本效率优先”向“安全优先”转变。特朗普2.0时代,美国贸易保护主义政策将更加体系化和制度化,“歧视性关税”框架逐渐成型,全球贸易政策不确定性加剧。未来美国民众对通胀的忍受程度将影响特朗普政府发动贸易战的范围和程度。特朗普新政府对外贸易政策将推动全球供应链更加追求安全性和弹性,多元化、区域化、本土化、政治化等特征将会更加明显。全球高科技领域的竞争程度将大幅增加,其中中美高科技领域竞争最为激烈。整体来看,特朗普新政府对中国经济的影响将小于特朗普第一任期,但对中国高科技领域的冲击力度将大于特朗普第一任期。中美经贸关系将会呈现出关键领域继续脱钩、非关键领域维持现状的局面。With the return of Donald Trump to the White House,the Trump 2.0 era is expected to significantly impact global trade.Since Trump's first term,the U.S.globalization strategy has gradually shifted from the neoliberal“Washington Consensus”to a more economically nationalist“New Washington Consensus,”and its trade policy has also shifted from prioritizing cost efficiency to emphasizing security,driving the ongoing reconstruction of the global supply chain system.This paper examines the foreign trade policies of the Trump and Biden administrations,analyzing their similarities,differences,and effects on global supply chains,and also explores potential trade policies and global supply chain reconstruction under the new Trump administration.The study finds that in the Trump 2.0 era,U.S.trade protectionism has become more systematic and institutionalized,its“discriminatory tariff”framework has gradually taken shape,and global trade policy uncertainty has intensified.In the future,the American people's tolerance for inflation will affect the scope and extent of the trade war launched by the Trump administration.The foreign trade policy of the new Trump administration will push global supply chains toward greater security and flexibility,with such characteristics as diversification,regionalization,localization,and politicization becoming more pronounced.Competition in the global high-tech sector will intensify significantly,particularly between China and the United States.While the overall impact on China's economy may be less severe than during Trump's first term,the impact on China's high-tech sector will be more significant.In Sino-U.S.trade relations,the two countries will continue to decouple in key areas and maintain the status quo in non-key areas.China's policies such as high-standard opening up and diversified trade will promote the steady development of its foreign trade.

关 键 词：特朗普2.0 美国贸易政策 全球供应链重构 逆全球化 

分 类 号：F752[经济管理—国际贸易]