特朗普2.0新政对全球能源格局的影响与中国战略选择  

The Impact of Trump 2.0 New Policy on Global Energy Landscape and China's Strategic Choice

作　　者：李智[1] 王千惠 李江龙 LI Zhi;WANG Qianhui;LI Jianglong(Xiamen University,361005;Xi'an Jiaotong University,710049)

机构地区：[1]厦门大学经济学院中国能源经济研究中心,福建省厦门市 [2]西安交通大学经济与金融学院,710049

出　　处：《财经智库》2025年第1期57-81,153,154,共27页Financial Minds

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目“统筹推进碳达峰碳中和与经济社会协同发展研究”(23ZDA109);国家社科基金重点项目“实现碳达峰碳中和目标的路径优化、政策引导与风险管控研究”(22AZD096);国家自然科学基金面上项目“碳中和目标下提升电力系统灵活性的市场化机制研究”(72173095)。

摘　　要：特朗普重返白宫将对全球能源格局产生重要影响。特朗普第一次执政期间大力扶持传统能源发展,引发国际能源市场的连锁反应,也初步形成了美国在国际能源格局中的新态势。特朗普2.0时代,美国将继续秉持“能源主导”政策,大力发展传统能源以强化其在全球能源体系的核心地位。这可能会加剧全球油气市场供给过剩并进一步阻碍全球能源转型进程。同时,在能源安全、能源贸易、能源合作及能源转型等领域,特朗普能源新政也可能给中国带来诸多挑战。在复杂的全球能源形势下,本文提出三个维度的应对策略:在国际层面,以“一带一路”倡议为依托,形成多元化能源合作布局;在双边层面,审慎规划中美能源贸易关系,深化能源科技合作;在国内层面,科学把控能源转型节奏,构建符合国情的能源发展路径。Donald Trump's return to the White House will significantly impact the global energy landscape.During his first term,Trump strongly supported the traditional energy sector,leading to significant shifts and reshaping America's role in the international energy market.In his second term,Trump may continue pursuing the“energy dominance”policy,further solidifying the United States as a central force in the global energy system.However,this could exacerbate the oversupply of oil and gas and hamper the global energy transition.For China,Trump's new energy policy is likely to pose challenges,particularly in the areas of energy security,trade,international cooperation,and domestic energy transition.To address these challenges,this paper proposes three strategic approaches.At the bilateral level,China should carefully plan its energy trade relations with the U.S.and deepen cooperation in energy science and technology.At the international level,China should promote diversified energy cooperation with other countries through the Belt and Road Initiative.At the domestic level,China needs to manage the pace of energy transition and develop an energy development path tailored to China's national conditions.

关 键 词：全球能源格局 特朗普新政 能源转型 气候变化 

分 类 号：F416.2[经济管理—产业经济]