财政改革与国家兴衰:跨越王朝变迁的动力机制与历史镜鉴  

Fiscal Reform and the Rise and Fall of Dynasties:Dynamic Mechanism and Historical Evidence Across Dynastic Changes

作　　者：巩冰 夏广涛 GONG Bing;XIA Guangtao(School of International Politics and Economics,UCASS,102401;Institute of World Economics and Politics,CASS,100732)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院大学国际政治经济学院,北京市102401 [2]中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所,北京市100732

出　　处：《财经智库》2025年第1期102-123,155,156,共24页Financial Minds

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目“研究阐释党的二十大精神”(23ZDA113)。

摘　　要：本文从长时段、宽视野的角度审视财政制度的历史变迁,通过解构中国古代不同王朝财政改革的宏观范式、特征结构、内在逻辑、实施效果,建立财政改革影响国家兴衰的六阶段模型,从压力驱动、路径选择、博弈协调、反馈强化、溢出扩散、效果出清六个阶段探讨财政改革影响国家兴衰的动力机制及其历史经验,得出五点启示:其一,财政改革的路径选择必须基于科学决策,构建完善的财政审计、财政监察、绩效评估体系至关重要;其二,财政改革方案必须设计兼顾核心主体利益的博弈协调机制,注重正式制度与非正式制度相结合;其三,财政改革应当基于以人为本的财政观,确保改革成果惠及广大人民群众;其四,财政改革必须理顺央地财权事权分配关系,在中央集中管理与地方灵活自主之间找到平衡点;其五,财政改革必须高度警惕经济社会的压力积累和风险扩散,努力将事后被动改革优化为事前主动改革,跳出财政改革的历史周期率。This paper examines the historical evolution of fiscal systems in ancient Chinese dynasties from a long-term,broad perspective,focusing on the macro patterns,structural characteristics,internal logic,and implementation effects of fiscal reforms.It establishes a six-stage model to analyze the impact of fiscal reform on the rise and fall of these dynasties,identifying key dynamics such as pressure-driven mechanisms,path selection,coordination,feedback reinforcement,spillover diffusion,and outcome clarification across these stages.The paper draws five critical insights:(1)The path selection of fiscal reform must be grounded in scientific decision-making,supported by a comprehensive system of fiscal audit,financial supervision,and performance evaluation.(2)The design of fiscal reform must take into account the coordination of core stakeholders'interests,integrating formal institutions with informal systems.(3)Fiscal reform should adopt a people-oriented approach,ensuring that the benefits of reform are widely shared.(4)Fiscal reform must rationalize the relationship between central and local fiscal authorities,balancing centralized management with local autonomy.(5)Fiscal reform must remain vigilant to the accumulation of social and economic pressures and risks,optimize proactive over reactive reforms,break free from the historical cycles of fiscal reform.

关 键 词：财政改革 国家兴衰 历史镜鉴 

分 类 号：F812[经济管理—财政学]