基于能见度和相对湿度估算沙尘浓度的模型构建与检验  

Development and validation of a regression model for estimating dust concentration from visibility and relative humidity

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作  者:海登科 焦瑞莉[1] 吴成来[2] 邹杰 许永芳 段赛男 Hai Dengke;Jiao Ruili;Wu Chenglai;Zou Jie;Xu Yongfang;Duan Sainan(College of Information and Communication Engineering,Beijing Information Science and Technology University,Beijing 100101,China;Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China;National Meteorological Information Center,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区:[1]北京信息科技大学信息与通信工程学院,北京100101 [2]中国科学院大气物理研究所,北京100029 [3]国家气象信息中心,北京100081

出  处:《中国沙漠》2025年第2期294-304,共11页Journal of Desert Research

基  金:国家自然科学基金项目(42075166);北京信息科技大学项目(S2226080,S2326220)。

摘  要:利用北京地区2021年沙尘天气期间PM_(10)浓度、能见度和相对湿度地面站点观测资料,在详细分析了PM_(10)浓度与能见度、相对湿度关系的基础上,构建了一个基于能见度和相对湿度估算沙尘天气下PM_(10)浓度(即沙尘浓度)的模型。结果表明:沙尘浓度与能见度显著负相关,与相对湿度存在弱的相关性。基于能见度拟合可得到较好的拟合效果(R^(2)>0.9),其中采用幂函数、指数函数组合的分段函数拟合效果更优(R^(2)=0.935,RMSE=231.96μg·m^(-3),ME=3.22μg·m^(-3));进一步引入相对湿度,拟合效果有所提升(R^(2)=0.939,RMSE=224.57μg·m^(-3),ME=-3.8μg·m^(-3))。In this study,we develop a regression model for dust concentrations based on the ground station observation data of PM_(10)concentration,visibility and relative humidity during dust events in Beijing in 2021.After a detailed analysis of the relationship among the three elements(i.e.,PM_(10)concentration,visibility,and relative humidity),we found that dust concentration has a significant negative correlation with visibility and a weak correlation with relative humidity.When only visibility was used for fitting,dust concentration can be estimated reasonably with the determination coefficient R^(2)greater than 0.9,and the piecewise function combining power function and exponential function has the better fitting results,with a R^(2)of 0.935,a root mean square error(RMSE)of 231.96μg·m^(-3),and a mean error(ME)of 3.22μg·m^(-3).Introducing relative humidity further improves the fitting performance,with R^(2)increased to 0.939,RMSE reduced to 224.57μg·m^(-3),and ME being-3.8μg·m^(-3).

关 键 词:沙尘天气 PM10浓度 能见度 相对湿度 相关系数 

分 类 号:P427.2[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]

 

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