2025年3月中国需关注的突发公共卫生事件风险评估  

Risk assessment of public health emergencies concerned in China,March 2025

作　　者：高洁[1] 陆步来[1] 彭质斌[2] 赵宏婷 王大燕[3] 谢怡然[3] 刘倩倩 唐林 任瑞琦 施国庆[1] 涂文校[1] 向妮娟[1] Gao Jie;Lu Bulai;Peng Zhibin;Zhao Hongting;Wang Dayan;Xie Yiran;Liu Qianqian;Tang Lin;Ren Ruiqi;Shi Guoqing;Tu Wenxiao;Xiang Nijuan(National Key Laboratory of Intelligent Tracking and Forecasting for Infectious Diseases,Public Health Emergency Center,Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing 102206,China;National Key Laboratory of Intelligent Tracking and Forecasting for Infectious Diseases,Division of Infectious Disease,Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing 102206,China;National Key Laboratory of Intelligent Tracking and Forecasting for Infectious Diseases,National Institute for Viral Disease Control and Prevention,Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing 102206,China;National Key Laboratory of Intelligent Tracking and Forecasting for Infectious Diseases,National Immunization Program,Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing 102206,China)

机构地区：[1]中国疾病预防控制中心应急中心,传染病溯源预警与智能决策全国重点实验室,北京102206 [2]中国疾病预防控制中心传染病处,传染病溯源预警与智能决策全国重点实验室,北京102206 [3]中国疾病预防控制中心病毒病预防控制所,传染病溯源预警与智能决策全国重点实验室,北京102206 [4]中国疾病预防控制中心免疫中心,传染病溯源预警与智能决策全国重点实验室,北京102206

出　　处：《疾病监测》2025年第3期287-289,共3页Disease Surveillance

摘　　要：目的评估2025年3月在我国(不含香港特别行政区、澳门特别行政区和台湾地区,下同)发生或者可能由境外输入的突发公共卫生事件风险。方法根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息,采用专家会商法,并通过视频会议形式邀请各省(自治区、直辖市)疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。结果2025年3月突发公共卫生事件报告数可能比2月增多,仍以传染病事件为主。当前急性呼吸道传染病疫情继续呈下降趋势,流行性感冒(流感)活动仍将处于下降过程,持续以A(H1N1)pdm09亚型为主。全国报告麻疹病例数自2024年秋冬季以来呈上升趋势,预计3月发病水平与2月相当,2025年麻疹疫情总体会有所上升。甲型病毒性肝炎(甲肝)病例数自2025年1月以来超过2021—2024年同期水平,预计3月疫情仍有波动。人感染禽流感疫情持续存在散发疫情的可能,猴痘病毒Ⅱb亚分支疫情仍将呈低水平波动,猴痘Ⅰb亚分支疫情存在输入我国的可能。结论对急性呼吸道传染病、流感、麻疹、甲肝、人感染禽流感、猴痘等予以关注。Objective To assess the risk of public health emergencies that may occur or be imported from abroad in China(except Hong Kong and Macao Special Administrative Regions and Taiwan region,the same below)in March 2025.Methods Based on the reports of domestic and foreign public health emergencies and surveillance results of key infectious diseases or notifications from relative agencies and departments,the expert consultation conference was hold and experts from provincial(autonomous region and municipal)centers for disease control and prevention attended this conference through video terminal.Results It is predicted that the incidence of public health emergencies in March 2025 would be higher than that in February 2025.The main public health emergencies would be infectious diseases.The current acute respiratory infectious disease continues to show a downward trend,and influenza activity will continue to decline,mainly dominated by the A(H1N1)pdm09 subtype.The number of reported measles cases nationwide has been on the rise since the autumn and winter of 2024,and it is expected that the incidence level in March will be comparable to that in February,2025.The overall measles incidence in 2025 is expected to increase.The number of hepatitis A cases has exceeded the same period in2021-2024 since January 2025,and it is expected that there will still be fluctuations in the epidemic situation in March.There is a possibility of sporadic and small clusters of human infection with avian influenza.The mpox virusⅡb sub branch epidemic will continue to fluctuate at a low level.There is a possibility of mpoxⅠb sub branch epidemic entering China.Conclusion Attention should be paid to multiple acute respiratory infectious diseases,influenza,measles,hepatitis A,human infection with avian influenza,mpox.

关 键 词：突发公共卫生事件 传染病疫情 风险评估 

分 类 号：R211[医药卫生—中医学] R51